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国际油价波澜不惊 成品油调价或迎年内第五次搁浅

2017-08-31 17:41:01   新华网

新华社上海8月31日电 题:国际油价波澜不惊 成品油调价或迎年内第五次搁浅

新华社记者刘雪

9月1日,我国将迎来今年第十七轮成品油调价时间窗口。近期国际油价波澜不惊,我国成品油调价参照的原油变化率振幅微弱。专家预计,本轮成品油调价出现搁浅概率较大,或将是今年以来我国第五次成品油调价搁浅。

我国《石油价格管理办法》规定,国内汽、柴油价格根据国际市场原油价格变化每10个工作日调整一次,调价生效时间为调价发布日24时。当调价幅度低于每吨50元时,不作调整,纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。

上一轮国内成品油调价时间窗口日是8月18日。由于国际油价走势前高后低,最终调价遭遇搁浅。根据定价机制推算,本轮成品油调价时间窗口日是9月1日。

作为我国成品油调价的风向标,近期国际油价表现比较平稳,纽约原油期货价格波动在每桶46美元至47美元附近,布伦特原油期货价格波动在每桶51美元至52美元附近。

国际石油市场消息面喜忧参半。近日欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国联合技术委员会宣布,7月份欧佩克减产执行率恢复到94%的高位水平。而前期其执行率一度跌至80%以下。另外,今年夏季油品需求旺季,原油库存消化较快,美国原油库存数据已连续九周下降。

前期持续增长的美国页岩油生产在近两周也出现放缓势头。美国油服公司贝克休斯发布数据显示,截至8月25日当周,美国石油活跃钻井数连续两周减少,且创下2016年5月以来最大两周跌幅。

专家认为,页岩油增长势头放缓和当前国际油价走势疲弱有很大关系。8月30日,纽约原油期货价格已跌至每桶45.96美元。

BP集团首席经济学家戴思攀认为,美国页岩油产业在国际油价每桶45美元至50美元的价格区间内相对平稳。当国际油价跌至每桶45美元附近,其钻井平台数量就会有所下降。

但同时,也存在拖累国际油价上涨的因素。近期飓风“哈维”影响了美国海湾沿海炼油厂生产,进而影响原油需求。高盛最新数据显示,受飓风影响,美国炼油产能关停约23%。有分析人士预计,由于风暴移动缓慢,炼油厂关闭时间会被延长。

安迅思能源研究中心总监李莉对近期国际油价判断并不乐观。她认为,当前全球市场依然供应充裕,国际油价上升动力不足,而且随着夏季需求高峰逐渐淡去,后期国际油价仍存在一定下行风险。

对我国成品油市场而言,本轮调价周期内,国际油价波澜不惊,我国成品油调价参照的原油变化率不足2%,对应的理论调价幅度或难以触及每吨50元的调价门槛。

新华社石油价格系统8月31日发布的数据显示,8月30日一揽子原油平均价格变化率为1.29%。 8月31日是本计价周期的第九个工作日。根据当前一揽子原油变化率水平测算,本轮成品油调价出现搁浅概率较大。

安迅思31日发布的价格变化率指数为1.48%,对应的理论调价幅度为每吨5元,远不及每吨50元的调价门槛线。

今年以来,我国成品油价格已经历了六次上调、六次下调、四次搁浅,总体而言,成品油价格跌多涨少,汽、柴油价格累计分别下跌了每吨355元和340元。

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