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在岸离岸人民币升破6.59 创逾14个月新高

2017-08-31 07:15:51   中国经济网

专家表示,央行可能继续强化预期管理,防范人民币大幅升值的风险

■本报记者 苏诗钰

8月30日,中国外汇交易中心发布的数据显示,人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.6102,较前一交易日继续大涨191个基点,再创去年8月17日以来新高。截至记者发稿,在岸离岸人民币对美元汇率双双升破6.59关口,创逾14个月新高。

华安证券首席宏观分析师徐阳昨日在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,在岸、离岸人民币双双涨破6.59关口,创年内新高。一方面是人民币中间价形成机制引入“逆周期因子”保证了人民币汇率有效调节,另一方面是今年以来欧元走强等一系列原因导致美元长期疲软。

兴业经济研究咨询股份有限公司一位分析师昨日表示,“Jackson Hole全球央行年会”上耶伦并未能给美元指数注入反弹动力,欧元创下年内新高。不过美元指数已经逐渐接近技术性强支撑,且本周有多项重要经济数据和税改细节公布。若基本面利好,将给予美元短线反弹动力。但是中期美元指数下跌趋势基本形成,难以逆转,因而人民币在年内仍有一定升值空间。同时,人民币持续升值也吸引了国内结汇需求增加,形成升值预期的自我强化。央行可能继续强化预期管理,防范人民币大幅升值的风险。

交通银行首席经济学家连平日前表示,总体来看,人民币汇率短期稳中有升,外汇占款有望转正。市场对欧央行缩减QE的规模及时间仍有期待,欧元区短期经济数据超预期,美元可能继续震荡下跌。人民币对美元汇率9月份有望稳中有升,人民币汇率稳步升值可能带来企业结汇意愿的上升,贸易顺差稳步增加一定程度上也有助于外汇占款的改善。预计8月份外汇占款或将小幅增加200亿元左右。

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