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央行净投放100亿 结束连续六日净回笼
2017-08-30 07:21:29 中国经济网
央行29日开展了500亿元7天期逆回购操作,利率与前期持平。鉴于周二有400亿元逆回购到期,全天实现净投放100亿元。由此结束了连续六日的净回笼,重回净投放格局。
在资金利率方面,银行间资金面延续紧平衡,银行间质押式回购利率多数上涨,Shibor再度全线上行,隔夜品种创2015年4月以来新高。具体来看,隔夜Shibor涨7.1bp报2.9220%,7天Shibor涨1.46bp报2.9210%,1个月Shibor涨0.47bp报3.8962%,3个月Shibor涨0.25bp报4.3765%,1年Shibor涨0.29bp报4.4107%。
招商固收报告认为,近期央行连续大额回笼资金,6个工作日逆回购回笼4300亿,但这不是央行要转向的节奏。央行连续回笼,一定程度上导致债市情绪偏弱,但最难熬的时刻还未到——9月2.3万亿NCD到期,以及季末MPA考核等,当前休养以待时可能是更好的选择。
中信固收明明研究团队则指出,近两月的资金面偏紧更多是由于总量和结构的分歧,而非强力去杠杆,资金利率难以突破上半年高点。6月之后债市进入较稳定时期,流动性总量基本稳定,综合央行的MLF、国库现金操作和公开市场操作以及财政投放来看,流动性收放总体平衡,但市场普遍感到资金偏紧,主要原因一是总体超储率偏低,二是流动性分布不均衡。
展望9月,中信证券固收研究团队表示,对季末资金面的担心、“新周期”的争论,导致了近期市场情绪偏谨慎,这也是导致近期债市收益率震荡的原因。但9月众多不确定性的答案将逐步揭晓,债市情绪性波动也有望逐步减弱。避免“因去杠杆而引发新风险”的基调并未改变,9月资金利率水平大概率不会重回上半年高位。
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