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沪指创2016年来收盘新高指数继续上攻需卸载“悬顶双雷”

2017-08-29 09:35:50   新华网

七夕节下,券商板块与次新股“大秀恩爱”,在双方力量集体拉抬之下,昨日延续了上周的强势表现。其中沪指收盘上扬0.93%,收报3362.65点。由于2016年以来沪指此前最高收盘点位为2016年1月6日的3361.84点,这意味着,昨日沪指不仅再创本轮反弹新高,而且收盘点位首次创出2016年以来的新高。

整体来看,除了经济复苏越来越被市场寄予期待以外,A股市场也正在享受一段不少上市公司高盈利、低通胀的宝贵时间窗口。但同时值得注意的是,短期来看,年内第三大解禁高峰即将到来,以及以科大讯飞为代表的部分前期飙涨股的获利回吐,或将成为指数继续上攻的“悬顶双雷”。它们能否被成功“卸载”,还需要关注量价配合能否持续、场外资金愿否进场等因素。

波指下行VS股指上攻

随着指数成功站稳3300点,多家机构乐观认为,A股市场正在迎接更加广阔的上行空间。其中国信证券对市场5月底以来的持续上攻概括出了三点原因。

首先,产业集中,优势企业强者愈强。不同于过去由粗放式扩张或者货币放水带来的牛熊快速转换、市场大起大落,这一次的牛市新征程将是一场优势企业价值投资的盛宴,由此或能开启A股市场未来长期慢牛之路。

其次,经济复苏,持续下行惯性思维开始打破。强劲的经济增长数据、越来越多进入复苏的行业、持续创新高的大宗商品价格,意味着长期以来经济持续下滑的惯性思维开始改变。

最后,通胀低位,企业尽享高盈利与低通胀。通货膨胀起不来,决定了短期内货币政策不会大幅收紧,市场可以充分享受美好时光。

与国信证券从宏观经济和中观产业层面看多A股的后市行情不同,部分机构选择从历史规律中把握指数的后市趋势。

其中,长江证券以中国波指与股指走势的对比来进行“管中窥豹”。中国波指由上交所于2015年发布,用来衡量上证50ETF未来30日的预期波动。长江证券统计发现,从2016年1月1日至2017年8月25日的这段时间,中国波指与上证50以及上证综指均呈现出反向的相关关系。

以近期的市场表现为例,随着5月及6月经济数据的超预期,市场对于未来经济预期的分歧减少,对金融和周期的认同度提升,市场整体波动率下行。这进一步体现为中国波指的下滑,以及二级市场指数的明显上行。

海通证券则通过股指的振幅规律发现,A股指数目前还没有见顶。其认为,对比历史年度振幅,A股今年截至目前还很低。回顾1990年以来历年市场波动幅度,上证综指振幅在2002年、2003年降至历史最低值,约25%;从2016年1月底2638点以来这轮震荡市上证综指振幅同样仅25%。从2015年中股市大幅下跌以来,由于国家队资金入市,市场的波动幅度与历史相比进一步收窄。

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