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A股连续两天显著上涨 短线需谨防回调

2017-08-29 09:03:32   中国经济网

每经记者 郑步春

本周一A股普涨,上证综指收盘涨0.93%至3362.65点,深证综指涨1.39%至1936.76点。此外,中小板、创业板两综指分别涨1.16%、1.67%。由盘面看,权重股中的券商股表现不错,非权重股中的多数品种上涨,次新股中的小盘券商股表现尤其强劲。

券商股上涨暗示市场多少已经有些怀疑“牛市到来”,但这样的情绪能维持多久还不好说。个人认为,不管如何,券商股很难出现类似于2014年底那样的涨势,因当时市场存在乱加杠杆的现象,现在配资等方面的监管已经加强,这种情况很难再现。

如果资金面没有太多改善,券商股这种上涨多半就属于补涨。2014年末那波大牛市中,领涨的是超大市值券商股,如中信证券、海通证券,但这次,次新股中市值相对较小的券商股表现更好,这其实已能说明些问题了。

目前,国债期货已三连阴,这一般说明资金面不是很充裕,市场只是因做多情绪升温而普遍加重了仓位。结合上周央行在公开市场的操作,个人感觉,短期内降准的希望有所下降。

到了9月初,大量8月经济指标将公布。一般来说,PMI等的公布时间会比较靠前,投资者可以先看这些指标。如果指标较弱,那么降准机会就会加大。这种情况下题材股、创新类股可能会有所表现。如果指标较强,那降准机会就会降低。这可能利好周期类股,题材股机会将少一些。

上周末IPO核发数并没有加量,我觉得这在事前是很难预测到的,所以就有一些意外之喜了,这对本周人气的维持应有些好处,特别是对次新股。周一次新股大涨,同花顺“新股与次新股”指数跳空收涨3.98%。

大盘虽然表现较好,投资者短线可能仍不宜过分追涨,不如等过了月末再说,我这么说主要是考虑到了以下因素:

首先,一年中大多数月份的月末倒数第二个交易日为新华A50股指期货交割日,投资者一般应暂避一避,过了这个敏感点再说。

其次,由形态看,各类股指经过连续两天的显著上涨后,已冲破或接近本轮行情上升通道的上轨,而始于8月14日的这波上涨已经持续了11个交易日。技术上来说,今明两天多半会有个拉回过程,短线客对此应有所提防。此外,周一多数股指出现了向上跳空缺口,该缺口未来多半会回补。

笔者已在微信平台开辟专栏,读者可以在每周日至周四晚间通过微信直接查看笔者的最新观点,详情请关注“每经投资宝”微信公众号。

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