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境外机构增持人民币债券创年内新高

2017-08-28 07:37:04   中国经济网

债券通为境外机构投资境内债市提供的便利性已有所显现。在7月初“通车”后,根据中债登与上清所最新公布的当月债券托管数据,境外机构7月单月共增持人民币债券399亿元,增持规模创下年内新高。业内人士认为,未来如果人民币汇率保持稳定或小幅升值,加上资本项目进一步开放,将会推动境外机构更多地增持人民币债券。

从中债登和上清所发布的数据分别来看,境外机构7月在中债登的债券托管总量达到8414.68亿元,7月单月增持债券377.87亿元,增持规模再创年内新高;境外机构7月在上清所的债券托管总量为409.22亿元,7月单月增加20.99亿元,增持幅度相较上月有所回落。招商证券宏观研究组指出,这主要由于对同业存单的增持力度明显减弱。

二者相加,境外机构7月在中债登与上清所合计增持了398.86亿元人民币债券。其中,国债仍是境外机构配置人民币债券的首选,增持规模达到378.18亿元,同样创下年内新高。

对于境外机构持有人民币债券规模增长的原因,业内人士普遍认为,一是7月初债券通的开通,显著推动了境外机构对人民币债券的积极购买;二是今年以来人民币汇率的小幅升值,给了境外机构持有人民币债券更强的信心。

不过值得一提的是,虽然有债券通“通车”因素在内,但除了首日交易量较高达到70亿元,此后的交易额便呈“细水长流”式增长,和“通车”前的预期相比规模并不算高。华创证券债券分析师吉灵浩认为,债券通从中长期来看对债市有一定利好,短期来看影响并不显著。

人民币汇率是未来境外机构是否会继续增持人民币债券的决定因素。吉灵浩表示,如果人民币汇率没有确定的企稳或升值预期,未来还有可能继续贬值的话,对海外机构而言,持有人民币债券并不划算。另外,国内资本项目如果可以进一步开放,也将有利于更多的海外机构投资国内债券市场。

建设银行金融市场部分析师郑葵方近日也撰文指出,当前境外投资者的债券需求主要取决于人民币汇率和资本项目开放程度。此前虽然国内债券市场收益率节节攀升,相对美欧日等国的国债利差在扩大,但因人民币汇率仍有贬值压力,境外投资者担心汇率风险以及资本项目未完全开放的问题,对进入我国债券市场投资心存疑虑。

从投资的债券类型来看,郑葵方预计,债券通的投资者需求初期仍然主要集中在国债和政策债,对该两类债券相对利好。Wind数据显示,2017年6月末境外机构持有境内人民币债券规模达到8250亿元,占比虽有提升,但仅为2.7%,相较美国的境外投资者规模占比26%和日本的10%仍然非常低。从债券类型来看,境外机构主要持有利率债,其中国债占比55%,其次是政策债占比37%,信用债占比仅为8%。可见,国债和政策债的占比高达92%,这主要是因为大多数境外机构投资者的海外投资风险管理政策较为严格,风险偏好低,较为青睐评级较高的利率债。

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