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财政支出会成资金面救星吗

2017-08-26 07:06:10   中国经济网

本周央行连续在公开市场实施资金净回笼,货币市场流动性依然偏紧,但紧张程度有所缓和,在这背后,财政支出再次发挥了“拯救”资金面的角色,预计随着月底临近,财政支出力度将继续加大,8月流动性最紧的阶段正在过去。从以往来看,下半年财政支出力度会比上半年大,在央行把紧流动性闸门不“松手”的情况下,财政支出会成为资金面的救星吗?

25日早间,央行宣布不开展公开市场操作(OMO),当日到期的1300亿元逆回购实现自然净回笼;这是本周以来,央行连续第五日通过OMO实施流动性净回笼。据统计,本周央行开展4200亿元逆回购操作,到期7500亿元,算上投放800亿元国库现金定存,全周央行在公开市场净回笼资金2500亿元。

过去几个月,每到中旬,央行一般会进行流动性净投放,是为“填谷”,到了下旬则通常转为实施净回笼,是为“削峰”。8月同样如此,上周央行通过OMO实施净投放2220亿元,本周再度转向实施净回笼,然而,本周以来市场资金面并不宽裕,这一背景下,央行坚持开展流动性净回笼,还是有些出乎意料。

央行的底气来源于对财政支出节奏的判断即对流动性总量变化的监控。23日,央行公开市场业务交易公告指出,“临近月末财政支出可一定程度对冲央行逆回购到期等因素”;25日,公告指出“考虑到财政支出、地方国库现金管理商业银行定期存款操作、金融机构法定准备金退缴等因素将投放流动性,对冲央行逆回购到期后银行体系流动性处于适中水平,8月25日不开展公开市场操作。”

财政支出和国库现金定存操作,都是财政库款从国库转为商业银行存款的过程,会形成银行体系流动性供应。从往年来看,8月财政存款多为净投放,这也是历史上8月份流动性通常要好于作为缴税大月的7月份的一个重要原因。往后看,随着月末财政支出力度加大及央行、地方先后集中开展国库现金定存操作,且央行明确25日有法定准备金退缴,因此,8月份流动性最紧的时候大概率已经过去,近期或有逐步改善的过程,这正是央行继续实施净回笼的底气所在。

值得一提的是,根据往年财政收支盈余变化规律,通常下半年尤其是四季度财政支出力度较大,财政存款投放量较大,有望形成流动性净供给。例如2016年1-6月,金融机构财政存款累计增加9332亿元,7-12月则累计减少8527亿元,其中8月、9月、11月、12月均出现余额下降的情况,相应形成流动性供给。

然而,今年下半年财政收支盈余造成的财政存款变化可能不会有往年那般明显,原因在于,今年上半年财政支出力度较大,可能导致下半年支出力度下降,财政存款的投放量也会低于往年。根据年初预算安排,全年中央和地方财政赤字预算数为23800亿元,不考虑财政结转结余资金投入,今年前7月公共财政收支实现差额-6216亿元,由此推算8-12月财政收支差额或在-1.75万亿元左右。而2015年和2016年,后5个月财政收支差额一般都超过-2.6万亿元。由此来看,往后几月财政支出对流动性的正面影响可能不会有往年那般明显。当然,投放量会减少,但仍旧是投放的,尤其是在9月底、12月底这样的时点上,财政支出仍将带来可观的流动性供应。

鉴于下半年财政支出力度可能下降,且支出的季节性规律明显、财政存款投放时点过于集中,很难充当资金面的“救星”。在超储率偏低、外汇占款恢复尚不明显的情况下,资金面波动仍主要取决于央行货币政策操作。倘若央行严守不松不紧的态度,后续资金面或许不会出现持续性收紧或宽松,但间歇性波动可能难免。

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