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期债上下两难

2017-08-25 09:16:57   中国经济网

5月以来,10年期和5年期国债收益率维持在3.5%—3.7%区间振荡。目前来看,经济基本面并未发生太大变化,通胀水平低位企稳,央行态度趋于中性,海外货币政策转向进程缓慢,国债期货在未来一段时间内仍将维持振荡走势。

央行发布的《二季度中国货币政策执行报告》显示,央行将继续实施稳健中性的货币政策,央行对经济判断更加乐观,认为经济保持平稳较快增长,主要指标好于预期,货币政策宽松的可能性在下降。央行将主动防范化解系统性金融风险放到了更加重要的位置,其中包括去杠杆和规范地方政府举债,过于宽松的货币政策将引发国企和地方政府举债意愿和能力的提升,导致杠杆率进一步上升,不利于央行政策目标的实现。从央行的公开市场操作上来看,在保持总量基本稳定的前提下,进行“削峰填谷”操作来平衡市场流动性,即在缴准缴税、政府债发行较多的情况下释放一定流动性,而在流动性相对宽松的情况下则净回笼资金。

市场回购利率基本保持稳定,6月以来银行间7天回购利率基本维持在2.7%—3.0%。回购利率保持相对高位不利于债券利率的下行,尽管二季度企业贷款加权利率大幅上行,但企业融资需求旺盛使得融资并未出现明显萎缩,企业债券融资的减少通过其他渠道进行了补充。7月信用债收益率有所下行,如三年期AAA债券月均收益率下行了20bp,AA债收益率下行了40bp,企业债券融资金额大幅回升,达到2840亿元,不同融资渠道之间的利率成本相差并不太大,融资成本略有下行即可带来需求的大幅回升,这给央行维持当前中性货币政策提供了基础。

尽管利率下行没有太大空间,但大幅上行的可能性也并不大。猪肉和鸡蛋价格下半年开始回升,或对CPI有一定推涨,但考虑猪价处在回落的大周期中,本次反弹带动CPI上涨或有限。

在多重基本面和政策面因素平衡下,国债收益率料将维持振荡走势,短端利率受到央行稳健货币政策制约难以下行,而长端利率在通胀压力较小的情况下不易大幅上行,收益率曲线将维持偏平坦状态。

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