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期指“金九银十”行情可期

2017-08-24 09:51:33   中国经济网

沪指突破3300点需要市场量能进一步放大

从近期的盘面走势可以发现以下几个明显的特征:其一,大盘出现明显的滞涨现象,创业板指上攻也呈现乏力;其二,尽管近期大盘连续反弹再次逼近3300点整数关口,但成交量却未能同步放大,反而逐日在递减,说明市场谨慎情绪不断发酵;其三,上周盘面所呈现出的主板和中小板、创业板指同时上涨的局面在本周并未延续,说明存量资金博弈的市场难以保证主板和创业板市场的普涨;其四,盘面上主力在拉权重以保持指数稳定。最为明显的特征是此前回调一段时间的银行、证券、保险等金融股在本周纷纷开始走强。

“混改”有望成为下一个市场风口

上周日晚间,中国联通正式公布了其“混改方案”。中国联通的“混改”对于中国大型国企集团“混改”的意义不言而喻。混合所有制改革作为本轮国企改革的突破口,并明确这项改革要在电力、石油、天然气、铁路、民航、电信、军工等领域迈出实质性步伐。作为混合所有制改革的“第一梯队”,中国联通“混改”的落地将带动国企改革节奏加快,其改革思路、 路径选择、具体操作等都将成为其他企业的重要参考。

今年以来混合所有制改革步伐正在加快,力度和广度也在持续加大。国家发改委新闻发言人孟玮日前表示,在选择19家企业开展“混改”试点的基础上,目前第三批试点企业已经遴选出,正在按程序报批,其中既有中央企业,也根据申请纳入了一部分地方国有企业作为试点。此外,中央企业的公司制改制将在今年11月前后完成,这将为中央企业的混合所有制改革扫清障碍,下半年混合所有制改革将加速。随着联通的复牌以及“混改”方案的落地,国企改革进程将加快,其他国企和地方国企将陆续出台“混改”方案,国企改革有望成为继“雄安新区”后的又一个风口,对市场起到明显的支撑作用,也将在一定程度上提升市场对于国企改革的风险偏好。

三季度市场环境整体偏暖

大盘已经在3300点以下的位置运行了长达一年半之久的时间,其间三次冲击3300点都无功而返,并且都在冲关失败之后走出了深幅回调走势。在8月初,大盘再度冲击3300点,并一度上攻至3305点后进入回调。由于近期人民币汇率贬值压力及国内资本流出压力放缓、宏观经济显现“韧性”、资金面预期稳定,叠加各方政策的平稳过渡等大的基本面环境,预计本轮调整的幅度将小于前面三次。大盘在站稳3300点未果后,只进行了短暂调整便再度发力向上冲击3300点。

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