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兵临3300点城下 为何临门一脚却功亏一篑

2017-08-24 07:12:29   中国经济网

昨天,原本是极其重要的3300点攻坚战,如果多方能够顺利拿下,那么对于强势行情的进一步延续,将非常有利。然而,股市总是难以难料,昨天下午,大盘在金融股的带领下,沪指一度上攻到3299.46点。但3300点依然难以攻克,最终沪指反而下跌2.53点。究竟是什么原因,在兵临3300点城下之时却导致临门一脚功亏一篑?

昨天,全国人民都在关注的一件大事,就是台风“天鸽”在广东登陆,对珠三角地区带来了严重影响。台风、暴雨,导致很多人都无法出行,不少行人在路上被大风吹得东倒西歪。达哥在想,人类在大自然面前真是太渺小了,当狂风暴雨袭来时,我们很多时候根本就毫无还手之力。

回过头来,再说股市,我个人认为,当巨大的风险摆在面前时,我们首先要做的,就是保护自己的资产,谨慎行事,千万不要与风险对抗。

其实,每年夏天,台风都会“光顾”东南沿海一带,而一旦台风登陆,对当地人民的日常生活、生产经营,都会造成非常明显的影响。所以,客观上看,台风对于股票市场的活跃程度,确实会产生直接或者间接的影响。而最为极端的影响,就是可能导致股市休市。昨天,就因为台风的登陆,港股市场就休市一天。

昨天联通A股果然没有继续上涨,反而下跌0.88%,而成交额更是放大到了近90亿元。有意思的是,查阅了一下中国联通最近两个交易日的融资融券情况,8月21日有2.79万股的融券卖出,而前天,竟然有多达318.85万股(3680.36万元)的融券卖出交易,同时也有77458.27万元的融资买入交易。由此可见,两个涨停之后,联通投资者的人心似乎很不整齐,多空分歧加大。

这个位置融券卖出联通,通俗地说,就是认为联通股价要跌,所以先向券商借入股票卖出,等股价下跌之后,再买回联通股票还给券商。如果未来股价真的大跌,那么融券者就赚钱了,但是如果未来不跌反涨,融券者就要承担损失。融券卖出联通,其实就是做空联通,这需要对市场很专业的分析判断,甚至比融资做多还要考手艺。一般情况下,融券做空股票,需要很高的技巧和胆量。所以,接下来联通的走势,以及融资融券交易情况,值得我们持续关注。

再看大盘,昨天沪指最高冲到3299.46点,指数这一波上攻,依靠的还是金融股。前天,达哥在“道达号(微信号:daoda1997)”文章中,就明确给大家提示,3300点攻坚战,还得靠金融股。而昨天,金融股确实是有很强表现的,尤其是银行股,工商银行大涨2.81%,创出新高;建设银行、招行、农行等,也都表现不俗。另外,保险股也继续走强,券商股的表现同样可圈可点。

然而,仅仅依靠金融股,要想突破3300点,那就太天真了。钢铁、有色等周期股集体大跌,雄安新区概念股集体走低,混改概念炒作继续降温,看到这种局面,沪指无法突破3300点,也没有什么好意外的。

那么,昨天没能突破3300点是否意味着行情结束了?

如果乐观一点,或许昨天确实是暂时蓄势,而今天,雨过天晴,游资大佬们重新整装待发,说不定还会突破3300点。而一旦突破重要阻力位,反过来将成为对市场的重要支撑。一旦强势有效突破,那么该加仓的时候,就要坚决加仓。

但是,如果稍微谨慎一些,短期大盘如果不能迅速放量突破的话,就不排除有再次陷入调整的可能。正如前面提到的,风险如果已经摆在面前,安全的做法是保护好自己。这个时候,做好调整的准备,也是非常有必要的。

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