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强势行情预期提升券商股估值

2017-08-24 08:49:41   新华网

昨日沪深两市大盘双双低开,全天弱势整理,最终双双以小幅下跌报收,两市共成交4309.2亿元,量能相比周二小幅萎缩,但资金净流出有提速趋势。据大智慧SuperView数据显示,昨日两市大盘资金净流出164.85亿元。

这主要体现在有色金属、化工化纤、非金属矿、黑色金属、煤炭石油等板块上。其中,有色金属板块居资金净流出首位,净流出36.04亿元,净流出前三名个股为北方稀土、中国铝业、厦门钨业,分别净流出5.32亿元、3.19亿元、2.42亿元。化工化纤板块居资金净流出第二位,净流出16.95亿元,净流出前三名个股分别为沧州大化、君正集团、万华化学,分别净流出2.99亿元、1.72亿元、1.19亿元。非金属矿板块居资金净流出第三位,净流出15.35亿元,净流出前三名个股分别为方大炭素、索通发展、金隅股份,分别净流出7.93亿元、1.41亿元、1.00亿元。

可见,周期股成为近期市场卖压最为沉重的板块。经过近段时间的持续上升,周期股股价持续上涨,市盈率同步回升,目前估值已经不太便宜。比如方大炭素,有分析人士预测其年化净利润有望达到60亿元,甚至70亿元,但如果按照周期股行业景气高峰时的10倍市盈率来推算,目前近600亿元的市值也并不太低估了。所以,资金减持也在预期之中。

不过,近期A股行情格局已越来越强势,因此,在热钱在减持周期股的同时,也在增持基本面积极变化的产业股,如银行类、酒及饮料、券商、保险、住宿餐饮等板块。其中,银行类板块居资金净流入首位,净流入12.07亿元,净流入前三名个股分别为招商银行、工商银行、中国银行,分别净流入1.92亿元、1.73亿元、1.37亿元。酒及饮料板块居资金净流入第二位,净流入6.61亿元,净流入前三名个股分别为贵州茅台、山西汾酒、口子窖,分别净流入0.94亿元、0.92亿元、0.13亿元。券商板块居资金净流入第三位,净流入5.08亿元,净流入前三名个股分别为华泰证券、国泰君安、中信证券,分别净流入1.51亿元、1.40亿元、0.66亿元。

业内人士认为券商股的表现值得期待。越来越多信息显示,A股市场已有可能进入新一轮上升周期。除了经济稳定增长的预期,上市公司业绩也正在出现一定加速趋势,这既包括周期性个股,也包括新兴产业股,尤其是人工智能、动力电池等领域的公司,这就意味着未来上市公司的业绩提升将驱动指数重心上移。由于券商股历来是A股强势行情的最大受益者,所以,A股强势行情形成的预期增强,券商股的涨升预期也随之增强。(秦洪)

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