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对冲基金教父突然吹响唱空集结号 宣称避险资产行情或到来

2017-08-24 07:16:56   中国经济网

“冲突甚至战争随时会出现。”达里奥21日在职业社交平台LinkedIn上撰文指出,当前美国的政治和经济形势与第二次世界大战爆发前的20世纪30年代相当,“政治在影响市场方面扮演了很重要的角色,与1937年的方式很接近”。

这并非达里奥第一次发出风险预警。两周前,他就曾建议投资者减少风险持仓,将资产的5%-10%配置黄金,以此对冲正在显露出来的两大风险事件:迅速升级的美朝地缘政治紧张局势,以及美国联邦政府的借债上限危机。

达里奥是谁?

在对冲基金业,可与乔治·索罗斯比肩的基金经理屈指可数,达里奥绝对是其中最顶尖的一位。据2017年福布斯最新排名,达里奥以159亿美元的净资产排名美国富豪榜第30位,全球富豪榜第69位。著名金融杂志《机构投资者》旗下出版物《Alpha》公布的2016年对冲基金经理收入排行榜显示,达里奥2016年的收入达14亿美元,仅次于“量化投资之父”詹姆斯·西蒙斯,位居第二。

成就达里奥赫赫盛名的正是他创建并执掌的桥水联合基金。管理资产近1600亿美元的桥水联合基金是目前全球最大的对冲基金公司,同时也是一部“赚钱机器”。2016年,桥水联合基金以49亿美元的净收益成为全球最赚钱的对冲基金。资料显示,在1975年-2011年期间,桥水旗舰基金Pure Alpha净赚358亿美元,超过索罗斯量子基金自1973年创立到2011年期间的回报总和。

“对冲基金教父”化身“末日博士”

达里奥是一个宏观型的投资者,他的投资决策很大程度上依赖于对宏观经济形势的判断。在他看来,经济是一部“机器”,具有某种特定的历史模式,能够掌握并且押注。通常情况下,达里奥的策略是先对政治、经济、监管环境变化进行评估,在对全球经济、通胀、货币政策等宏观指标进行分析后,再细致地考察出哪些行业和公司会受到影响,市场上的供需情况到底怎样,市场价格是否得到体现,然后通过多元化配置对冲风险。

今年以来,达里奥不断对投资者发出警告,对宏观环境和市场的态度似乎越来越悲观,俨然已经化身新的“末日博士”。

简要回顾一下近三个月来达里奥的表态:

5月,达里奥撰文指出全球经济正处于或接近最佳状态,未来一到两年不会出现重大经济风险,但长期经济前景堪忧。对长期看衰的主要理由是:目前的低利率政策极大限制了全球主要央行在未来通缩衰退时期的量宽手段;低利率环境会推升长期高债务风险;养老金、社保、医保补助等非债务类支出过高,会为长期财政带来压力;当下的社会和政治割裂倾向也会限制财政政策的有效性;社会和政治冲突风险位于几十年来的高点,一旦崩溃将伴随经济下行制造更可怕的杀伤力。

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