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转债迎风口 可转债基结构性机会可期

2017-08-18 11:04:46   中国经济网

随着再融资政策的收紧,今年定增市场缩水过半,而可转债却受到上市公司和投资者的追捧。今年以来可转债待融资规模超3000亿元,比肩定增市场规模。与此同时,部分可转债基金收益率随着大盘反弹收益率创年内新高。随着可转债市场的迅速扩容,相关机会已吸引越来越多投资者的关注。

定增遇冷可转债受捧

受2月份再融资政策收紧和5月份减持新规出台的双重压力,今年以来定增市场遇冷,定增融资数量和融资规模均比去年同期缩水近半。与之相反,可转债作为不受新规限制的再融资通道,受到上市公司热捧。据记者不完全统计,目前有上百家公司发布了可转债发行预案,其中近半数已经通过股东大会决议,拟融资数额累计超过3000亿,与今年定向增发的募资总额旗鼓相当。这周就有广电网络、蓝盾股份、创维数字、利尔化学等多家上市公司发布可转债发行预案。

从发审委审核通过率来看,今年以来发审委共计审核可转债11家次,通过率为100%,堪称上市公司再融资的“绿色通道”。目前已经成功上市发行的可转债就有国君转债、久其转债、模塑转债、永东转债、骆驼转债、光大转债等多家,其中发行数额最大的是光大转债,数额为300亿元。

相比定增和贷款,上市公司利用可转债进行融资优势明显。可转债期限较长,常常在5年至6年,并且可转债票面利率较低,前期年利率一般在1%以内,后期年利率一般不超2%,这相当于为上市公司提供了长期的低息贷款。此外,可转债发行费率比定增更低,也不会因为股本迅速扩容摊薄每股收益。

虽然减持新规同样要求可转债转股之后遵守减持规定,但可转债自身交易却不受减持新规束缚,同时也避免了定增破发导致融资失败的风险,提高了投资者的参与积极性。从今年发行的几只可转债看,可转债申购中签率堪比新股申购,例如,光大转债的中签率为0.49%,国君转债的中签率甚至只有0.08%。

可转债基金或现结构性机会

随着大盘在5月底持续反弹,可转债市场大幅上扬,中证转债指数由5月的最低点273.32一路上涨至8月3日最高点413.32,可转债相关基金充分受益。

金牛理财网数据显示,近一周以来,受沪深股市大幅下挫影响,只有三只可转债基金的收益率实现正增长,分别是银河丰利债券(519654)、招商可转债分级债券A(150188)和嘉实合润双债两年定开债(000269)。但近一个月以来,纳入统计的所有35只可转债基金均实现收益率的正增长,其中排名前五位的依次是招商可转债分级债券B(150189)、长信可转债A(519977)、长信可转债C(519976)、富国可转债(100051)和前海开源可转债债券(000536).

近三个月以来,35只可转债基金收益率同样实现正增长,排名前五位的依次是招商可转债分级债券B(150189)、长信可转债A(519977)、长信可转债C(519976)、前海开源可转债债券(000536)和富国可转债(100051),其中排名第一的招商可转债分级债券B(150189)收益率高达19.54%。

光大保德信基金经理陈晓认为,转债市场的扩容一方面提高了市场的活跃度;另一方面也使得满足可转债发行条件的优秀公司在发行过程中受到更多投资者的关注,最终形成优秀企业股债市场两方面的相互作用和相互促进的良性局面,推动转债市场良性发展,也为投资者提供更多投资机会。

业内人士认为,可转债作为偏小众的投资品种,此轮的行情上涨主要归因于前期的超跌和货币政策更趋稳健使得流动性趋紧,机构投资者纷纷涌入可转债市场并趁机做高收益。从目前情况看,上涨趋势已经形成,接下来的可转债行情将由交易性机会转向结构性机会。

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