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中钢协:当前钢材价格大幅上涨 并非供需变化所致

2017-08-11 10:08:31   新华网

据中国钢铁工业协会网消息,针对近期黑色系期货市场和钢铁上市公司股票价格“异动”,推动钢材现货市场价格走高的现象,8月9日参加中国钢铁工业协会会议的代表认为,当前钢材期货价格大幅上涨并非市场供需变化所致,而是一部分机构对去产能、清除“地条钢”和环保督查等政策的过度解读和误读导致的。

据悉,此次中钢协会议邀请了部分钢铁企业、期货交易所、期货公司、钢铁电商及信息咨询公司等代表共同研究分析“异动”原因。

参会代表一致认为,当前钢材期货价格大幅上涨并非市场需求拉动或是市场供给减少所致,而是一部分机构对去产能、清除“地条钢”和环保督查以及2+26城市大气污染防治计划进行了过度解读,甚至是误读,特别是广泛传播下半年受环保影响将造成钢铁产品供应量的大幅减少,钢材价格还要“飞涨”的极端判断结论。这类市场形势判断无疑放大了环保等有关政策对于市场供给的影响,是片面的,是危言耸听的炒作行为,难免从中渔利之嫌疑。

类似的情况在2017年初就已经出现过。2017年初,因为彻底取缔“地条钢”,市场上曾出现一波行情炒作,借以推高钢材现货、期货价格和进口铁矿石价格。钢铁协会及时召开了部分长材企业座谈会,企业通过正确判断稳定了市场。上半年钢材市场供需基本平稳的事实也进一步验证了并未因为取缔“地条钢”而出现供应紧张和钢价飞涨,而是通过合规企业合理释放产能,满足了国内需求,维护了市场稳定。

会议认为,现在市场上又出现拿环保政策说事的论调,以严厉的环保政策为依据虚拟出钢铁企业将大面积停产限产,从而引发供需双方对下半年钢材供需平衡的担忧。往深处想,这种炒作或将给化解钢铁过剩产能带来负面影响。行情炒作者一是对环保政策缺少应有的透彻理解,2+26城市大气污染防治计划是在雾霾天气对区域内企业采取停产限产措施,并不能等同于直接影响50%的钢材产量;二是对钢铁行业、钢铁企业环保现状不了解,当前大多数会员企业总体上实现环保达标排放没有问题;三是不相信地方政府能够科学、公平地执行环保政策。

与会者表示,相信钢铁企业将进一步加大环保投入,为改善环境作出新的贡献。相信地方政府不会对环保达标的企业采取“一刀切”的停产限产措施。因此,严厉的环保政策对钢材市场供应的影响有限。不能谈环保色变,草木皆兵。

与会的钢铁企业代表还一致表示,考虑到市场供需关系以及下游用户的承受能力,不会任意抬高价格,也不愿意钢材价格大幅波动。近些年钢铁行业生产经营经验表明,钢材高价格并不意味着钢厂高利润,因为原燃料、辅料价格会随着钢材价格的上涨而大幅上涨,通常会超过钢材价格的上涨幅度,钢铁行业受这样的剪刀差之苦已经不止一次了。钢铁企业对行业平稳运行的渴望与期待超过相关各方,将会积极维护行业平稳运行。

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