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供给端持续收缩 下半年水泥价格有望继续提升

2017-08-10 16:19:38   中国青年网

截至8月9日,全国水泥价格指数报收106.31点,同比上涨29.46%;6月以来,申万水泥制造板块累计上涨17.28%。上半年,水泥行业通过错峰生产和加强环保等措施改善了供求关系,水泥库存水平大幅低于去年,行业整体呈现量价齐升的态势。业内人士预计,上半年的强劲需求预计会延伸至下半年,叠加短期供应进一步受限,下半年水泥平均价格预计继续提升,行业前景亦会明朗。

水泥罐车。(资料图) 杜金凯

供给端持续收缩

今年3月至5月,水泥价格风向标长三角沿江熟料价格连续上涨,6月以来进入淡季,水泥价格伴随需求回落,价格有所回调。海通证券分析指出,近期由于多地规划淡季停窑,供给将持续收缩,后续需求随着“金九银十”的到来,预计价格回归高位水平。

今年的错峰生产已经扩大至夏季甚至旺季。“全国错峰时长还在增加,错峰范围向南方扩散,供给端持续通过去产量的方式收缩,行业集中度得以提升。”海通证券分析师邱友峰称。

8月9日,河北省环保厅公布上半年全省压减水泥产能201.5万吨,超额完成年度任务。中央第四批环保督查工作日前已全面启动,第五环保督查组率先进川进行为期一个月的督查工作。受此影响,川中地区多数熟料线及水泥磨机陆续停产,过去两天成都部分大厂开始通知上调袋装水泥价格50元/吨,散装水泥上调30元/吨。

环保部发布的《关于水泥玻璃行业淘汰落后产能专项督查情况的通报》显示,督查期间,共现场核查水泥企业224家,发现全国仍有使用国家明令淘汰的落后工艺和设备的水泥熟料企业19家,产能433万吨;水泥粉磨企业70家,产能2058.7万吨。

量价齐升效益提升

在水泥行业供给侧结构性改革下,水泥行业价格和盈利均有大幅回升,全国水泥行业呈现量价齐升态势,行业效益快速增长。

国家统计局数据显示,水泥行业上半年利润达334亿元,同比增长248%;水泥行业利润率达到6.51%,已经高于工业行业平均利润率水平。在行业去产能的大背景下,在需求稳定的基础上,下半年水泥行情有望积极乐观。根据工信部数据,上半年水泥行业整体销售利润率7.3%,同比增长4.8%,百元资产实现利润2.53元,同比提高1.79元。

得益于行业形势持续向好,水泥行业上市公司业绩亮眼。塔牌集团7日披露半年报,公司上半年实现营收19.72亿元,同比增长29%;实现净利3.1亿元,同比增长182%。公司表示,公司在粤东市场的占有率连年达40%以上,具有较强的产品价格话语权,水泥销售价格相对较高,公司盈利水平较好。

华新水泥表示,在国家强化环保执法、加强环保和去产能的大背景下,伴随原材料价格同比上升,推动了水泥价格出现恢复性增长。据中国水泥网行情数据中心的统计,截至今年6月底,华新水泥在湖北和西南地区高标水泥价格分别为380元/吨、324元/吨,同比分别增长130元/吨、81元/吨。

□本报记者 刘杨

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