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去杠杆提速M2增速下降 表外融资重回表内迹象明显

2017-06-15 10:34:27   经济参考报

金融体系强监管、去杠杆的政策作用已经显现。一方面,金融体系降低内部杠杆对M2产生明显下拉作用,根据中国人民银行14日公布的数据,5月末M2同比增长9.6%,首次跌破10%,也创下历史新低。另一方面,监管趋严推动表外融资重回表内,5月新增人民币贷款达到1.11万亿元,高于市场普遍预期,与此同时,新增社会融资规模则为1.06万亿元,低于新增人民币贷款规模。

广义货币(M2)的“跳水”引发市场广泛关注,对此,央行有关负责人表示,“这主要是金融体系降低内部杠杆的反映。”该负责人称,近些年部分金融机构通过资金多层嵌套进行监管套利,在体系内加杠杆实现快速扩张,累积了一定风险。随着稳健中性货币政策的落实以及监管逐步加强,金融体系主动调整业务降低内部杠杆,表现在与同业、资管、表外以及影子银行活动高度关联的商业银行股权及其他投资等科目扩张放缓,由此派生的存款及M2增速也相应下降。5月份商业银行股权及其他投资科目同比少增1.42万亿元,下拉M2增速约1个百分点。货币持有主体的变化对此也有所印证:5月末金融体系持有的M2仅增长0.7%,比整体M2增速低8.9个百分点;与此同时,非金融部门持有的M2增长10.5%,比整体M2增速高0.9个百分点。此外,5月份财政性存款增加5547亿元,较上年同期多增3928亿元,也暂时性地下拉M2增速约0.3个百分点。

估计随着去杠杆的深化和金融进一步回归为实体经济服务,比过去低一些的M2增速可能成为新的常态。”他说。

表内信贷增速超预期、表外融资萎缩则从另一方面体现在监管压力下,银行已经对相关业务作出调整。华泰证券首席宏观研究员李超表示,在监管力度未出现放松的情况下,企业通过银行表外进行融资将会受到抑制,社融新增规模中表内贷款所占比例也将会逐渐抬升。5月份表内融资占比超过100%。除了表内和信托贷款外,其他社融融资方式均出现不同程度下降,其中委托贷款减少278亿元;未贴现的银行承兑汇票减少1245亿元;企业债券融资净减少2462亿元。

有业内人士表示,M2增速的放缓以及表外融资下行可能都反映了市场对于未来货币政策、监管政策等预期产生了短期超调的反应。而在各类数据显示金融市场“去杠杆”已经进入到下半场的当下,市场对于下一步的货币政策和监管政策是否调整也愈发关注。

上述央行有关负责人表示,在经济发展新常态的大背景下,应坚持积极稳妥去杠杆的总方针不动摇。当然,也要注意加强监管协调,把握好政策的力度、节奏,稳定市场预期,使结构调整总体平稳有序。人民银行将继续根据经济基本面和市场供求变化,灵活运用多种货币政策工具组合,把握好去杠杆与维护流动性基本稳定之间的平衡,为供给侧结构性改革营造中性适度的货币金融环境。

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