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银行理财收益率仍将保持上行趋势 近期平均升至4.4%

2017-06-09 09:58:54   经济参考报

近期银行在售理财产品的预期年化收益率平均升至4.4%的水平,创下年内新高。

业内人士指出,受货币政策边际趋紧影响,上半年我国市场利率持续走升,近期在去杠杆、强监管背景下,银行系统内流动性出现紧张状况,预计6月银行理财产品收益率仍保持上行趋势。

普益标准监测数据显示,6月2日当周188家银行共发行了1182款银行理财产品(包括封闭式预期收益型、开放式预期收益型、净值型产品)。其中,封闭式预期收益型人民币产品平均收益率为4.43%,较上期上升0.01个百分点,再次创下年内新高。

一家大型商业银行理财产品销售人员说:“银行理财产品的平均收益率从去年9月后就一路上涨,目前已经达到4.4%的水平,回升了1个百分点,这个上升幅度算是很快了。”

普益标准研究员宋楚文介绍说,银行理财收益率上行的趋势预料在6月的几周内还将延续。在5日当周发行的银行理财产品中,预计会有184款产品的预期收益率在5.00%及以上,占比为11.34%;1081款产品(占比为66.61%)的收益率集中在4.00%至5.00%区间;预期收益率达到6.00%及以上的产品目前还不存在。

同样作为保本高收益的理财渠道,互联网货币基金的收益率也一路走高。以阿里旗下的余额宝为例,截至6月2日,其7日年化收益率已经达到了4.0610%,再度创下了年内新高。而在去年9月中旬时,其收益率曾一度跌至2.3%,之后逐渐回升。

此前,银行业理财登记托管中心发布了《中国银行业理财市场年度报告(2016)》。报告显示,从资产配置情况来看,债券、存款、货币市场工具是银行理财产品主要配置的三大类资产,其中债券资产配置比例为43.76%。

在专家看来,上述三大类资产收益率的高低决定了银行理财产品收益率的高低,而最终都取决于市场利率的高低。作为观察市场利率的重要指标,截至6月2日,一年期Shibor(上海银行间同业拆借利率)报4.3773%,在今年初时为3.38%的水平,而去年11月初时也就在3.03%的水平左右。由此可见,短短7个月间市场利率上升速度很快。

反映银行系统内流动性紧张的情况还有一个现象,即当下一年期的Shibor利率已经超过同期的贷款基础利率(商业银行对其最优质客户执行的贷款利率),也超过了央行规定的1年期贷款基准利率4.35%。在业内人士看来,银行负债端成本超过资产端成本,倒逼着银行系统内加速去杠杆,压缩同业、理财和委外业务。

复旦大学金融学院教授孙立坚认为,6月也是银行系统内流动性紧张的传统时点,随着MPA季度考核、美元加息时点的到来,金融去杠杆和强监管仍将持续,货币政策难松。但出于维稳金融市场的需要,央行也不会让其大幅上升,仍料保持稳中小升态势,银行理财收益率也会是这种走势。6月过后,银行系统内流动性情况会出现好转,不排除全年市场利率的高点就出现在6月。记者 王旺旺

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