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同业存单发行热情再度点燃 重回“量价齐升”时代?

2017-06-13 09:42:24   

中新经纬客户端6月12日电(罗琨)在历经前两个月的发行缩水后,同业存单在上周又迎来一次“小阳春”。据Wind统计,6月5日至6月9日这一周,同业存单计划发行规模5917亿元,实际发行规模为4675.5亿元,创下近11周以来单周新高。与此同时,同业存单各期限利率普遍上行,突破5%成为普遍现象。

中国人民银行总部资料图。 中新社发 李慧思 摄

重回“量价齐升”?

“存单最近又开始很火了,价格蹭蹭蹭地往上涨。”一名货币经纪公司负责人向中新经纬客户端(微信公众号:jwview)表示。

以内蒙古银行近期发行的“17内蒙古银行CD066”为例,计划发行规模10亿,期限为30天,主体评级为AA,发行利率已经达到了5.42%。

尽管发行成本较高,却难敌银行发行热情。据Wind统计, 6月5日至6月9日这一周,同业存单计划发行规模5917亿元,实际发行规模为4675.5亿元。天风证券固收分析师高志刚认为这一现象在预期内,他向中新经纬客户端(微信公众号:jwview)表示,银行负债端还是存在压力,同业端的融资需求仍旧存在,因此发行量上去了。

不过中信证券分析师明明等人则认为,同业存单收益率持续上行,更主要的原因是需求弱,而非供给强。

上清所托管数据显示,5月同业存单到期量大于发行量,净融资额-3333亿。明明认为,同业存单净融资额为负,说明供给过强很可能不是同业存单收益率持续上涨的主要原因,CD利率的持续上行应当是需求过弱导致。

与此同时,银行所发存单集中在三个月以内期限品种。Wind数据显示,上周三个月以内的同业存单发行额为3200.9亿元,占总体存单发行额的68.46%。上海一名私募合伙人向中新经纬客户端(微信公众号:jwview)指出,这一现象说明银行出于跨季需求增持同业存单的可能性更大。

农商行逆势增持

上清所数据显示,5 月同业存单托管量 76097 亿元,较 4 月减少 3905 亿元,主要受 5 月同业存单发行规模低于到期规模影响。从同业存单持有结构来看,商业银行和广义基金仍是主要持有人,但持仓规模下降。其中,国有大行和股份制银行连续降低同业存单持仓规模,而农商行、农合等逆势增持,农商行在5月增持了327亿元同业存单。

农商行何以如此偏爱同业存单?山东一名农商行负责人向中新经纬客户端(微信公众号:jwview),目前在监管趋严的大背景下,农商行可做业务极少,存单相比理财流动性更好,而且近期同业存单利率高,价格好,因此其所在农商行近期也增加了对同业存单的配置。

“现在存单利率这么高,我们发是发不起了,但买买还是可以的。”上述负责人称。

招商证券固收分析师徐寒飞在其研报中则提及,资金充裕的农商农合行认为债市已经见底,加大债市配置,5月份共净增持债券550亿,其中增持同业存单327亿,国债67亿,国开债64亿,农发债61亿。

上述人士进一步指出,同业存单的“价”和“量”都是银行“去杠杆”的指标,“价”的影响钝化,“量”出现反弹,意味着这一轮“去杠杆”短期内已经接近尾声。“去杠杆”要么抬高负债端利率,要么抬高资产端利率,目前看起来,无论是资产还是负债,都出现了边际的改善,很显然,这是商业银行“去杠杆”行为短期将告一段落的迹象。(中新经纬APP)

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