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居民存款季度初减少不离奇 存款“搬家”是主因

2017-05-17 17:27:34   中国经济网

中国经济网北京5月17日讯(记者 陈果静) 中国人民银行公布的4月金融数据显示,4月人民币存款增加2631亿元,同比少增5692亿元。其中,住户存款减少1.22万亿元。

居民存款的减少引发了一些关注,更有人把居民存款的下降归因于住户部门中长期贷款的大幅下降。实际上,4月,住户部门贷款增加5710亿元,其中,短期贷款增加1269亿元,中长期贷款增加4441亿元。其中,住户部门中长期贷款的增幅比3月略有减少,降幅并不大,与居民部门存款减少的幅度并不匹配,并不能解释居民存款下降的现象。

实际上,银行存款季末大幅冲高、季初大幅回落的现象已存在多年,并不是新鲜事。

仔细观察央行发布的金融数据就能发现,近年来,每逢4月份都会出现居民存款减少的现象,尽管今年4月银行居民存款的减少的额度比去年要多——去年4月,住户存款减少9296亿元,但并未超出正常水平。如在2014年4月,住户存款就减少了1.23万亿元。

这一方面与银行“冲时点”拉存款的行为有关,另一方面,更与银行存款利率低,各种理财产品更具有吸引力有关。

虽然监管机构对于银行“存贷比”的要求早已放松,但“冲时点”的现象仍然存在。一些银行出于“冲业绩”的需要,在临近季末时“拉存款”,而这部分资金多为短期资金,在下一季度初立即流出,因此导致季初月份居民存款的大幅下降。

与此同时,一些银行还在设计理财产品时“花了心思”。比如,一些非保本的理财产品不计入存款。为了让季度数据靓丽,银行往往把非保本的理财产品设计为在季度的最后一天到期,这样也达到了“冲时点”的目的。等到了下个月,这些转换为活期存款的理财资金再度买入其他理财产品,从而使得居民存款出现大幅下降。存款在表内和表外间的“搬家”就造成了居民存款数据的较大波动。

今年以来,货币市场利率逐步上行,也导致银行理财产品、各种货币基金的收益率上涨。尤其是4月下旬以来,市场资金面较为紧张,主要投资于货币市场的银行理财产品整体收益率上行。目前,余额宝的7日年化收益率再度触及4%,创下近两年的新高,其他宝类产品也在4%上下徘徊。理财产品收益率近期也一路上涨,不少产品的利率都达到了4%以上。

显然,理财产品的利率水平早已“完胜”银行活期存款。尤其是在目前银行理财产品基本上都能够“刚性兑付”的情况下,不少人认为银行发行的理财产品就等同于保本产品,因此在投资时也就格外放心。在这样的背景下,居民存款在季度初流失、转化为理财产品也就成了常态。

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