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央行详解“缩表”:不一定是收紧银根 4月已变扩表

2017-05-15 17:25:34   经济参考报

央行在最新发布的2017年第一季度《中国货币政策执行报告》中首次回应了市场广为关注和讨论的央行“缩表”。报告称,这一次的所谓“缩表”发生在外汇占款下降这一大背景不变的情况下,主要与现金投放的季节性变化及财政存款大幅变动有关。报告明确,中国央行“缩表”并不一定意味着收紧银根。

数据显示,2017年第一季度央行出现“缩表”,即2月和3月末人民银行资产负债表较1月末分别下降了0.3万亿元和1.1万亿元。这一变化市场高度关注,也有不少市场人士就此推测央行未来将进一步收缩市场流动性。对此,报告称,一方面,现金投放的季节性波动是2月“缩表”的重要原因;另一方面,财政支出加快是3月“缩表”的重要原因。与此同时,商业银行合意流动性水平的变化对资产负债表也有一定影响。

报告称,根据形势变化和供求因素,人民银行合理搭配工具组合,保持了流动性中性适度和基本稳定。这意味着央行资产负债表的变化与保持银行体系流动性基本稳定可以并行不悖,既不能用过去几年的情况来衡量目前的流动性松紧状况,也不能将某些季节性因素引致的央行资产负债表变化视作货币政策取向的变化。

报告称,总的来看,我国央行资产负债表的变化要受到外汇占款、调控工具选择、春节等季节性因素、财政收支以及金融改革和调控模式变化等更为复杂因素的影响,中国央行“缩表”并不一定意味着收紧银根,比如在资本流出背景下降准会产生“缩表”效应,但实际上可能是放松银根的,因此不宜简单与国外央行的“缩表”类比。对此应全面、客观看待,并做更深入、准确的分析。由于第一季度“缩表”受季节性及财政收支等短期因素影响较大,从目前掌握的数据看,4月人民银行资产负债表已重新转为“扩表”。

国泰君安银行团队分析称,央行专门用一个专栏回答了市场关注的“缩表”问题,其根本目的是为了打消市场对未来进一步紧缩的担忧,稳定市场预期,避免货币市场过度波动,为后续的金融去杠杆工具创造平稳的货币环境。

值得注意的是,报告在谈及下一阶段货币政策思路时也明确表示,“灵活运用多种货币政策工具组合,合理安排相关工具搭配和操作节奏,维护流动性基本稳定,既为信贷合理增长提供必要的流动性支持,又防范信贷过快扩张和杠杆率进一步攀升,还要加强金融监管协调,有机衔接监管政策出台的时机和节奏,稳定市场预期,把握好去杠杆和维护流动性基本稳定的平衡,为稳增长、调结构、去杠杆、抑泡沫和防风险提供相对平稳的流动性环境。”央行称。

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