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防风险须探明 病灶对症下药

2016-12-22 09:20:57   

原标题:防风险须探明 病灶对症下药

中央经济工作会议12月14日至16日在北京举行。根据会议内容,2017年经济工作任务可归纳为“调结构,防风险,稳增长”。

2017年防范金融风险将更加重要,涉及的风险有房地产市场风险、汇率风险、企业债务风险等,其中重点强调了防范房地产市场风险。

2016年房地产市场风险产生的根本原因是,地方政府对土地财政的依赖以及限制土地供应,直接原因是房地产去库存。信贷起到了配合作用,1至11月居民中长期贷款占全部贷款的45%,远高于2015年的25%。虽然近期多地对房地产进行了限购,但是不解决土地财政问题,热点城市不加大土地供应,房地产市场风险就不会消除。

防范房地产市场风险,一方面,要通过收缩信贷,限制投资投机;另一方面,要进行税制改革,消除地方政府对土地财政的依赖,加大土地供应。当然,房地产是支柱产业,要防止房地产调控政策用力过猛,避免房价“大起大落”,引发经济危机。

2015年“8·11汇改”以来,受我国经济下行以及美联储加息的影响,人民币汇率贬值压力一直很大,人民币兑美元汇率不断创下2008年6月以来新低。2017年汇率风险依然很大,原因有四方面:其一,美国经济复苏势头良好,特别是特朗普政府可能通过增加基础设施建设、减税、放松金融管制等方式进一步刺激经济增长,美联储预测2017年可能有三次加息。其二,2017年英国将正式“退欧”,法国、德国等多个欧洲国家将举行大选,右派有可能上台,美元作为避险货币将走强。其三,国内方面,房地产市场将受到严格控制,企业和个人将增加国外资产配置,这会导致资本外流。当然,不排除特朗普政府认为人民币汇率严重低估,强迫人民币升值。防范汇率风险,会议强调,一方面要保持货币政策稳健;另一方面要扩大人民币汇率波动幅度。这意味着央行将减弱对汇率的干预。原因有两方面:其一,汇率干预的成本很大。从2015年8月至2016年11月,我国外汇储备已下降6000亿美元;其二,在我国经济下行、美联储加息背景下,汇率贬值预期很难消除,汇率干预的效果不大。

2011年以来我国经济增速不断下滑,投资回报率下降,企业债务风险增加。财政部已明确表示,2015年1月1日以后,地方国有企业、融资平台公司所借债务不属于政府债务,地方政府不承担偿还责任,这意味着2017年企业债务风险可能加剧。企业债务风险和银行不良贷款风险紧密相关,容易诱发金融风险。银行不良贷款率从2013年一季度末的0.96%,逐渐上升到2016年三季度末的1.76%,另外,企业债务增加,也会限制投资能力,不利于稳增长。受制于防范房地产市场风险、汇率风险,货币政策难以宽松。会议强调,将通过减税、降费、降低要素成本以及各类交易成本等方式减轻企业负担。另外,还将通过推行债转股、加大股权融资等方式化解企业债务风险。

(责编:孙红丽、伍振国)

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