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房价过快上涨应问责地方政府 房地产不能成保增长手段

2016-12-22 13:51:14   

落实地方政府责任问责制度需从三方面创新

业内人士称,二线城市房价快速上涨的一个重要原因就是土地供应不足

■本报记者 孙 华

“日前召开的中央经济工作会议强调2017年房地产要因城施策,落实地方政府责任。”方正证券房地产首席研究员夏磊在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,地方政府是房价过快上涨的问责主体,如果房价上涨是供需不平衡引起的,必须加快推地,房地产不能作为短期保增长的手段。

中央经济工作会议指出,要落实地方政府主体责任,房价上涨压力大的城市要合理增加土地供应,提高住宅用地比例,盘活城市闲置和低效用地,三四线城市房地产要去库存。

夏磊认为,“要人不供地”的城镇化,是部分城市住房供应短缺的一个直接因素。而城市住宅用地供应小于住宅销售面积,导致广义库存走低,销售放量则会产生无房可卖的情况。今年南京、厦门、合肥、苏州等热点二线城市房价快速上涨的一个重要原因就是土地供应不足,商品住宅供应短期无法跟上市场销售热度,存销比快速降低。北京由于土地供给存在刚性,拆迁成本高,更是长期处于入不敷出的状态。而重庆则相反,住宅用地供应持续高于商品住宅销售面积,让市场库存弹性十足。 地方政府可能改变“量出为入”的思维,增加土地供给;适应城镇化发展趋势,全面推行“人地挂钩”,增加人口迅速增长城市的土地供给弹性。随着户籍改革的深入推进,未来的城市也会有人口的争夺,一个土地供应有弹性、房价稳定的城市,才能吸纳就业、吸纳人口,最终实现良性循环。

易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进对记者表示,此前的问责中,把房价的上涨等因素进行了考核,如果房价上涨过快,在全国各大城市中排名较为靠前,那么这个时候会通过房价的控制幅度和地方政府的政绩进行挂钩。

“后续从长效发展机制角度看,要不断研究问责制度的内容,可以在三个方面尝试创新。”严跃进认为,第一,要综合考虑各城市的实际发展情况,在因地制宜的基础上对房价的变动情况进行分城市分析,每个城市应该有一个较为科学和务实的房价年度预测数据,基于此类数据进行房地产市场的管控。第二,对于房地产市场的土地、房贷等因素要进行年度预测,同时应该有一个季度的分析会,通过季度的考核来完成年度的考核。第三,明确权责,将稳定房地产市场的各项内容具体到各个责任人身上。同时注重让一些市场化的社会机构来对此类楼市调控效果进行评估和测算。

(责编:乔雪峰、夏晓伦)

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