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美联储“缩表”如期而至 美元走强金价走跌
2017-09-22 15:37:11 中国青年网
据新华社电 正如市场预期,美国联邦储备委员会20日宣布将从今年10月份开始缩减总额高达4.5万亿美元的资产负债表,以逐步收紧货币政策。美联储为何要“缩表”?“缩表”会对中国产生什么影响?
与通过加息直接提高资金成本相比,“缩表”等于直接从市场抽离基础货币,对流动性的影响较大。由于市场对美联储“缩表”已有充分预期,总体反应较为温和。决定公布之后,美股道琼斯指数小幅下滑,但此后很快收复失地;美元指数走强,包括人民币在内的非美货币纷纷下跌,黄金价格下跌,多数大宗商品价格攀升。
有分析认为,“缩表”将收紧美元流动性,给美元带来升值压力,新兴市场将面临本币贬值和资金外流等挑战。美联储发布消息后,美元指数从91.66附近跃升至92.6附近。美元走强,非美货币相对走弱,人民币也不例外。21日,人民币对美元汇率早盘在岸和离岸市场一度跌破6.6,随后又收复了这一关口。人民币对美元中间价报6.5867,较前一交易日下跌197个基点。
中金所研究院首席经济学家赵庆明表示,美元瞬间拉升和前期持续下跌有关,美联储的“缩表”消息只是给了美元一个反弹动力,也似乎对人民币形成压力。但放到全球市场看,人民币的反应是适度的。
今年以来,人民币兑美元累计升值6%左右。“伴随国内宏观经济持续回稳向好,市场对人民币资产的回报预期趋于改善,人民币汇率在年内或仍将稳健运行。美联储缩表不会对人民币形成明显的外部压力。” 评级机构东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青说。
中长期来看,“缩表”将直接影响美债供需关系,推动美债收益率上升。一旦美国长端利率上升,或许会影响中美利差。中美十年期国债利差有望保持在120至150BP左右,利差保护较为充分,资金大规模外流压力可控。
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