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债市偏弱 变数增多

2017-09-08 09:06:55   中国经济网

9月7日,央行时隔近三个月重启28天逆回购,进行一年期2980亿元MLF操作,中标利率3.2%,与上次持平。当日有1695亿元MLF到期,9月16日MLF到期1135亿元。央行提前超额对冲到期MLF以及重启28天逆回购表明央行维稳季末流动性的态度。9月同业存单到期量2.24万亿元,为历史高点。9月同业存单到期滚动发行压力较大,存单发行利率进一步上行可能较大,预计9月资金利率高于8月,低于6月。

8月官方制造业PMI为51.7,与上月相比上行0.3个百分点。在环保限产的大环境下,购进价格和出厂原材料价格上涨明显,分别由7月的57.9和52.7回升至65.3和57.4。同时,生产和新订单也有一定程度回升,库存小幅下降,带动PMI整体回升。这轮价格上涨是由环保限产推涨,即降低产量,提高国有企业生产利润,解决企业历史债务进而降低国企负债率。中共十九大召开在即,环保限产在此之前放松的可能性较小。但若价格推升较快,下游接货不积极,旺季需求并不如预期那么好,反转可能来得更快。

投资方面,8月房地产数据回落明显,从钢厂调研情况来看,地产对钢材方面需求有所减弱,预计地产投资数据会有一定程度的下滑。基建方面,由于上半年政府收支差距较大,接下来几个月基建绝对值依旧维持高位,但增速下滑趋势难以逆转。制造业方面,由于环保限产,被限产的行业投资均会有大幅收缩,但这并不能代表制造业投资出现拐点。整体来看,投资方面较7月会有小幅下降。

从大宗商品价格上涨幅度和PMI数据来看,PPI会再度冲高。由于8月食品价格除水果外均出现一定程度上涨,叠加去年8月基数较低,CPI将较7月有所走高。目前,尚未看到PPI对CPI有明显的传递效用。

近期相关政策逐渐落地,新公布的《公开募集开放式证券投资基金流动性风险管理规定》有利于降低短端收益率,同时利好利率债,但由于存在半年的调整期,短期并不会有明显的影响。

由于中美利差维持历史高位,人民币维持强势,不论是美联储加息还是缩表对国内债市整体冲击都较小。

总体来说,9月利率债市场依旧偏弱,收益率在环保限产以及安全检查和美联储议息的影响下有进一步走高的可能。预计9月利率债收益率先涨后跌,10年期国债收益率波动区间为3.6%—3.75%。需要警惕的是,近期工业品价格上涨主要受环保限产推升,目前有色和黑色系价格拉升幅度和速度过快,若是需求端没有明显扩张以支撑价格高位,反转可能比预期来得更快,叠加央行维稳资金面,期债或有小幅反弹的机会。

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