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成本抬升助推棉纱价格走强

2017-09-06 11:07:16   中国经济网

棉价重心上移

棉纱价格主要受棉价影响

棉纱加工费用相对固定,而棉花占据其成本七成左右,棉价对纱价的影响毋庸置疑。棉花期货2004年上市,得到了市场的广泛认可,在全球棉花定价市场也具有重要的话语权。从这个角度而言,棉纱价格将在很长一段时间内看棉花的脸色。所以,分析纱价未来价格走向,重点在于对棉价后市的判断。

原料成本重心将上移

尽管今年全球棉花增产已成定局,但我们看到,美棉指数从高点81美分/磅跌至66美分/磅一线,利空因素得到有效释放。USDA8月发布的全球棉花供需报告中,尽管利空超出市场预期,但美棉仍然在66美分/磅上方止跌回稳。而实际上,我们看到美棉本年度出口销售进度大大超过以往年份,这在后期将支撑棉价。

内外棉纱价差收窄

当前,中国棉纱已经由一支独大的时代演变成中国、印度、巴基斯坦和越南相互竞争的局面。因此,我们在关注国内棉纱市场的同时,不能忽视其他几个主要竞争对手的棉纱产业状况。以2017年1月为分界点,之前的棉纱价格内高外低,国内棉纱市场被挤占;而此后价差慢慢逆转,国内棉纱性价比优势再次显现,并夺回失去的部分市场份额。目前内外纱价差继续收敛,国内价格优势正在被慢慢抹平,纱价反弹面临压力。

交割制度较为严格

首先,目前确定的35家棉纱交割厂库生产普梳32支纱的数量有限,而转产会增加成本,且后市不确定性较强,如果期价未给出足够的生产利润,企业生成仓单的意愿并不强。其次,虽然允许标准交割品之外的棉纱交割,且可以自报升贴水,但买方若无响应,卖方则必须交割普梳32支纯棉纱,这对于卖方极为不利。最后,棉纱现货企业反映,目前棉纱异纤的贴水较大,过于严苛,这将影响企业交割的积极性。

综上所述,棉花占据棉纱成本七成左右,对纱价后市有重要影响。长周期来看,棉价已有效释放增产利空,后续将受到库存下降和消费拉动的支撑。棉纱期货上市不久,交割制度较为严格,卖方交割有风险。操作上建议回调买入为主,实体企业可以考虑买棉花抛棉纱,并积极做好交割准备。

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