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多空交织 债市波段操作为主

2017-08-30 09:51:57   中国经济网

8月,国债期货表现为下跌、反弹、再回落的行情,引起期债下跌的主要原因是资金面的压力和市场对通胀的担忧。避险情绪和7月主要经济数据不及预期,助推期债上行。进入9月,考虑到8月经济数据将有所反弹、央行“削峰填谷”维稳流动性、监管细则陆续出台、美联储大概率缩表等多空影响,期债或维持振荡,建议投资者轻仓波段操作为主。

T1712近期整体振荡

基本面短期利空

基本面方面,8月主要经济数据将有所反弹,短期将对债市形成一定的冲击。7月官方制造业PMI为51.4,比上月回落0.3个百分点,不及预期。分项方面,7月制造业生产指数、原材料库存指数、产成品库存指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数、进口指数均较上月出现回落。7月规模以上工业增加值同比增速放缓。从拉动经济增长的三驾马车看,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增速比1—6月回落0.3个百分点,制造业投资、基建投资和房地产投资均出现回落;7月社会消费品零售总额同比增速较6月有所回落;进出口方面,受内外需增速放缓的影响,7月进出口增速不及预期。不过,7月中国外贸出口先导指数为41.9,较上月上升0.4,表明市场对未来出口形势仍较为乐观。统计局表示7月工业生产增长有所波动,受到了极端高温天气影响,部分企业放高温假、停产检修等短期非经济因素所致。

相比之下,7月新增信贷和社融增量均超市场预期。受住户部门中长期贷款增加的影响,7月人民币贷款同比多增3619亿元。在表外融资转移至表内,债券融资回暖的背景下,7月社融增长超预期。7月新增信贷和社融增量超预期,显示经济仍具有较强的韧性。从近期高频数据看,下游方面,30个大中城市商品房成交面积与7月相比,并无明显改善。中游方面,8月6大发电集团日均耗煤量相比7月有明显增加。上游方面,CRB指数小幅上行,美元延续弱势。下半年我国经济存在下行压力,但结合近期高频数据和7月主要经济数据看,8月主要经济数据相较7月,将有所反弹,短期经济数据向好对债市形成一定的冲击。

通胀方面,年内通胀压力不大。8月,国内商品价格上涨明显,引发市场对未来通胀的担忧,施压期债市场。虽然原材料价格上涨对PPI形成支撑,不过PPI基数的抬升,对PPI同比增速形成制约。PPI能否进一步传导至CPI,还需要考虑需求端情况,考虑到当前需求端较为平稳,故年内通胀压力不大。从近期高频数据看,蔬菜和猪肉价格均有所反弹,对8月CPI形成支撑,不过考虑到供给因素的影响,猪肉价格上涨不可持续,故年内通胀大幅上行概率较小。

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