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人民币汇率两天暴涨500点
2017-08-30 09:37:14 中国经济网
周一升值381基点或0.57%后,周二人民币兑美元即期汇率继续飙升逾百点,突破6.60关口,截至当天18时左右报6.5919,两天时间暴力升值545基点;离岸人民币报6.6017,升值183基点,盘中屡屡突破6.60关口。另外,来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示,8月29日人民币兑美元汇率中间价报6.6293,较前一交易日上涨60基点。
消息面上,杰克逊霍尔会议后,欧元兑美元升至两年半高点、逼近1.20美元心理关口。FXTM富拓市场研究副总裁Jameel Ahmad指出,美联储主席耶伦未就美国利率政策提供任何线索,最近有迹象显示美联储可能暂停加息周期。投资者正利用任何可能的机会抛售美元,他们已找到了又一个由头。要使美元能自当前水平反弹,投资者需要获得货币政策的进一步指引。
今年以来,人民币兑美元上涨约5%,涨幅不及欧元、澳元、日元兑美元。不过,8月份以来人民币兑美元累计上涨1.82%,令人民币跃居表现最好的亚洲货币,将印度卢比、韩元、港元、新台币、泰铢、越南盾等远远甩在后面。美元指数本月已累计下跌1.27%。
市场人士指出,今年以来,人民币兑美元升值很大程度上归因于美元持续走弱,反映了全球经济同步复苏尤其是非美经济体较美国更为强劲的复苏。未来美元反弹仍存在较大阻力,叠加中国经济稳中向好,人民币对美元汇率将保持稳定甚至继续小幅走高。
外汇分析师韩会师指出,中间价的大幅飙升其实并不意外,也并不值得过度关注,因为在目前的人民币中间价定价机制下,一旦外部市场美元大跌,人民币自然就有升值动力,这是“参考一篮子货币”定价的必然结果。他认为真正值得关注的是即期汇率的走势,并未在中间价弱侧持续大幅偏离,这种情况一般说明市场并未出现较为强烈的购汇意愿,市场总体结售汇较为均衡,顶多有小幅度逆差。韩会师指出,导致市场购汇热情低迷的主要原因可能主要有两点,一是市场总体对美元后市情绪偏空;二是央行的市场引导逐渐奏效,机构和市场普通投资者对人民币中长期持稳的预期在增强。总体来看,最近两个交易日人民币的强势表现,表明市场正在从人民币单边贬值的恐慌情绪中摆脱出来,虽然距离升值预期再次主导市场还有不小的距离,但至少人民币再次陷入2015年~2016年那种非理性贬值预期漩涡的风险已经大为降低了。
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