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上海家化有了“好业绩” 却没等来预想中的行情

2017-08-29 17:06:38   中国经济网

图片来源:视觉中国

由于经营逐渐走出泥潭,中国最大的本土化妆品企业正重新接受二级市场投资者的审视。不过,在其发布中期业绩的十天之后,主力资金却似乎仍在犹豫。

但是,如果与同口径数据相比,市场却不能否认上海家化的业绩有一定程度的改观。该公司去年底剥离花王业务,导致收入来源缩减。若剔除剥离花王业务的负面影响,上海家化上半年营收相比去年同期同口径数据增长9.5%。

1-6月份公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为4.98亿元,与上年同期剔除缴纳天江药业股权转让税金因素影响后的3.03亿元相比,同比增加64%。此外,尽管上半年营收与净利润有所倒退,但上海家化在中报内表示,2.2亿元的净利润总额已超过去年全年净利润。

从表面上看,市场似乎认可了上海家化的这份报表。这体现在资金流上—中报公布后的七个个交易日,上海家化有六个交易日获得主力资金的净流入,仅一个交易日遭遇净流出。

不过,大部分投资者似乎仍在观望。截至8月28日,该公司中报公布后累计涨幅仅为4.2%,并未出现明显的中报行情。Wind数据显示,过去五个交易日,主力资金净流入额为306万元。与上海家化每日千万元、甚至上亿元的成交额相比,这一规模的资金流入并不能算大。

机构的态度可能在一定程度上体现了投资者之间的分歧。Wind资讯数据显示,17日以来,共有8家机构更新对上海家化的盈利预测,其中5家建议增持,3家建议谨慎增持或持有。

上述机构中,有3家上调对上海家化2017年营业收入的预期,1家下调预期。对于2017年净利润,有3家机构上调预测,但也有另外3家机构下调预测。

那些不看好后市的投资者似乎也有充分的理由。首先,证金公司减持就对市场情绪不利。披露信息显示,截至6月底,证金公司持股占上海家化总股本的比例下降0.31个百分点,至3.41%;总持股量下降约211万股,至2295万股左右。

其次,虽然同口径下的业绩数据有所改观,但资本投入效率和盈利能力却出现了下滑。今年上半年, 上海家化加权净资产收益率为4.02%,低于去年同期的6.3%。2012-2015年,上海家化上半年的净资产收益率连续四年维持在15%以上。投入资本回报率的趋势类似,今年上半年为4.04%,低于去年同期的6.3%,而2012-2015年的数据均在15%以上。

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