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菜粕 后期偏弱运行概率较大

2017-08-29 10:11:58   中国经济网

利空因素云集

今年郑州菜粕期货明显弱势,在5月底甚至还刷新了一年来的低点。7月中上旬,随美豆开始了一波反弹行情,但随着美豆主产区降雨增多,菜粕反弹无疾而终,再次回归到弱势振荡走势中。展望后市,随着天气转凉,主要用于水产饲料生产的菜粕将逐渐进入消费淡季,而另一方面,美豆丰产概率增大,因此后期菜粕期货仍将偏弱运行。

国产油菜籽产量继续下降

今年我国夏收油菜种植面积继续下降。据国家粮油信息中心预计,今年我国夏收油菜种植面积688万公顷,比去年的710万公顷下降3.1%,为连续第三年下降。不过,由于今年在生长期内,气候条件较好,农户加强了田间管理,今年油菜籽粒较去年饱满,颗粒较大,总体上单产水平较上年有所提高。因此,今年国产油菜籽产量降幅小于面积降幅。据国家粮油信息中心预计,今年我国夏收油菜籽产量1374万吨,比去年的1400万吨下降1.9%。

但是,民间市场分析机构和国家粮油信息中心预计数字差别很大,据天下粮仓预计,今年国产油菜籽产量410万吨,比去年的450万吨下降8%。数字差别大,也许是统计口径问题,但产量变化的趋势一致,都是连年减少。

另外,由于去年国产油菜籽价格前低后高,多数农民未享受到后期油菜籽价格上涨的红利,今年大多惜售待涨。而由于小机榨产能增加,油厂抢购货源积极性较高。

油菜籽、菜粕进口量上升

去年,我国对来自于美国的DDGS开征高额关税,使得低蛋白的DDGS进口量迅速下降,进口DDGS成本增加,港口地区DDGS价格上涨,和菜粕价差缩小,DDDG因较低的性比价丧失了较大的市场份额。与此同时,菜粕则乘虚而入,从去年下半年开始,菜粕进口量不断增加,今年更是达到近些年高位。据海关统计,2017年7月,我国菜粕进口量为5.75万吨,同比增加422.84%;1—7月为55.37万吨,同比增加220.14%。

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