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韩国经济重上正轨有点难

2017-08-25 04:31:27   中国青年网

韩国政府既想清算积弊,又想针对现阶段经济社会发展问题寻求解药。不过,韩国国内对此存在一定忧虑。此前的韩国总统都曾提出过经济振兴计划,但最后都无功而返。韩国深陷经济增速低迷、失业高企、经济结构不合理的泥潭,而且难以自拔。

近日,韩国总统文在寅执政满100天。作为特殊政局下当选的总统,其执政百天的成绩单受到韩国各界瞩目。从近期总体经济走势来看,韩国新一届政府似乎迎来了一个较好的开端。文在寅的当选,标志着韩国政治乱局结束,韩国内政重新走上正常轨道。但在韩国经济发展仍面临结构性问题,诸多疑难杂症尚未得到解决的背景下,文在寅想要实现其竞选时提出的“清除积弊、以收入增长带动经济发展”等主张并非易事。

为了履行承诺、贯彻新政府的大政方针,文在寅政府多措并举,准备开展攻坚战。新政府试图通过增加居民收入刺激国内消费增长拉动内需,带动国内企业经营和就业向好发展,力求形成良性循环。在提升国民收入方面,文在寅政府首先在就业问题上做文章,以谋求“人人有饭吃,人人有钱赚”。在增加就业方面,以增加公共机关就业岗位为重点。比如,计划新增17.4万消防员、警察、福利机构公务员等工作岗位,并加大对青年就业的财政及政策支持。

但就业问题已困扰韩国多年,并非朝夕之间即可解决。要想真正落实新政策,既需要大量的资金支持,也需要良好的国内经济氛围。为此,文在寅政府提出增税提案,尤其是要提高高收入群体和大型企业税赋,以增加财政收入,保证政府落实各项政策所需资金。另外,鉴于韩国财阀在韩国经济结构中占据垄断地位,且韩国中小型企业70%的销售活动都与韩国财阀有关,相应经济活动的公平公正须得以保障,韩国政府提出削弱财阀垄断力度,加强对财阀经济往来监测力度等改革措施。

从上述政策方向不难看出,韩国政府既想清算积弊,又想针对现阶段经济社会发展问题寻求解药。不过,韩国国内对此存在一定忧虑。首先是本届政府能否真正解决积累多年、盘根错节的经济发展难题。此前,韩国前总统李明博就任初期也曾提出大力振兴经济的宏伟蓝图,但无奈国内经济发展痼疾难除,同时遭受国际金融危机的重大打击,致使韩国经济一蹶不振,不得不无果而终。朴槿惠就任韩国总统后,也曾提出过发展“创造经济”“实现第二次汉江奇迹”的发展规划,但最终也是无功而返。由此可见,韩国深陷经济增速低迷、失业高企、经济结构不合理的泥潭,而且难以自拔。

其次,财政支持能否得以有效保障。无论是增加就业岗位、解决“临时工问题”,还是提高福利和最低工资水平,都需要大量财政支持。除此之外,韩国还需解决外交、安全等其他领域的难题。单是韩国政府未来5年要完成所谓“一百大国政课题”一项就需要178兆韩元。

再次,文在寅政府提出的经济政策也要辩证看待。例如,韩国舆论指出,虽然提出了新增81万就业岗位的构想,但韩国现阶段失业人口约有300万,新增加的就业岗位实在是杯水车薪。另外,提高最低工资水平意味着中小企业雇用负担加重,恐引发中小企业裁员。鉴于韩国财阀的绝对经济主导地位,韩国国内还出现了“财阀改革会否削弱韩国产业竞争力”的质疑之声。韩国政府能否有效解决就业问题,尚待观察。

最后,文在寅上台初期,虽对在野党和财阀展现出了团结友好姿态,但朝野博弈是客观存在的,也是极难改变的,而且面临国会中执政党占少数席位、经济政策触动财阀利益的现实,韩国政府各项政策能否得以顺利推进,也是未来一大难题。

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