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用萨德与美国利益交换 韩国算盘要落空

2017-08-24 15:31:45   海外网

摘要:美国一直有最大化压榨盟友国家的政策传统,无论是对北约盟国还是对亚太盟友,其所考虑的只有自身的国家利益。

8月22日,韩美两国在首尔举行了自由贸易协定(以下简称FTA协定)共同委员会特别会谈,美方再次提出了应尽快启动两国FTA协定修改谈判进程的立场主张,但是遭到了韩国方面的明确拒绝。韩国产业通商资源部通商交涉本部长金铉宗表示,韩国不会接受美国单方面提出的修改两国FTA协定的要求。

资料图:韩国总统文在寅(左)与美国总统特朗普(图源:中新网)

另一方面,韩国外交部部长康京和在首尔与美国太平洋司令部司令哈里斯当天也举行了会谈,双方对巩固和加强韩美同盟的必要性与重要性给予了充分肯定和高度评价。韩美两国在同一天不同领域的高级别会谈从会议气氛到对话结果,从突出分歧到强调合作,可谓是大相径庭。这种尴尬局面的出现,显然不是文在寅政府所想见和乐见的。

可以说,文在寅政府在外交安全领域强调“随美”立场,而在经济贸易领域则突出“自主”原则的政策思路。然而,其妄图通过“利益交易”来平衡韩美两国的主要利益分歧,进而实现韩国国家利益最大化的做法,非但没有获得美国方面的足够理解和正向认同,也未获得预期之中的政策效果,反而是让韩国深陷于更加被动的失落境地。

冷战结束以来,韩国历届政府基本上遵循着“经济上倒向中国,安全上依靠美国”的政策思路,应当说,这一做法收到了较好的政策效果。不过,朴槿惠政府与美国在韩国境内联合部署“萨德”反导系统的一意孤行做法,让中韩伙伴关系发展跌入到了前所未有的低谷境地。而文在寅政府上台之后反复无常的政治态度和政策手段,不仅在重蹈朴槿惠政府的覆辙,还让韩国处在了“经济上无依无靠,安全上不得不靠”的极为危险局面。韩国外交与国家安全被绑缚在美国亚太战略上的同时,其经济贸易发展前景也深受美国国家利益因素的影响。

韩国对于自身国家利益的“精算”结果及其对盟友美国责任担当的过高估计,与美国只顾及自己而不顾及其他国家、通过安全捆绑来实现充分得利的一贯做法之间,形成了极大的政策反差。这次韩美两国在FTA协定修改问题上的首度交手,也绝不会轻易地就此结束。要注意到的是,美国一直有最大化压榨盟友国家的政策传统,无论是对北约盟国还是对亚太盟友,其所考虑的只有自身的国家利益,根本不会顾及盟友国家的利益损失和实际感受。虽然文在寅政府在韩美FTA协定修改问题上表明了韩国方面的强硬立场,但是,这一态度的坚持在美国的综合施压局面下能够持续多久,最后能走多远是值得怀疑的,尤其是在特朗普政府贸易保护主义思想根深蒂固的情况下。

目前,文在寅政府在韩美FTA协定修改问题上对美国的强硬姿态,在部署“萨德”反导系统问题上对中国的强硬立场,表明了韩国在经济上依靠美国既不现实也损害极大,而在安全上不与中国充分沟通既十分不利也损害颇多。特朗普政府绝不会允许韩美FTA协定修改问题长时间地违背美国意愿而拖下去、甚至是不了了之。胳膊拧不过大腿,未来美国将会使用各种手段包括以安全领域施压来促动经贸领域变化,进而逼迫韩国就范,让韩国不得不按照美国意愿来修改韩美FTA协定。对韩国来说,始终跳不出“绝对安全”思维,过分强调自身获利的政策思路,只能使自身的国家利益受制于韩美同盟框架而难以摆脱冷战意味。到头来,韩国不是经济安全“双受益”,而是经济安全“双受损”。总之,韩国对美国的“利益交易”策略既没必要也不会成功。

(郭锐,吉林大学行政学院国际政治系教授,海外网专栏作者)

责任编辑:陈倩 CN030
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