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“空中巨无霸”遭遇“订单荒”(经济透视)

2017-08-24 05:27:12   中国青年网

作为目前全球最大、最昂贵的客机,空客A380堪称“空中巨无霸”。它在气动性能、飞行系统和航空电子设备等不少领域都引入了一系列创新技术,创立了客机的全新标准。然而,A380自2009年正式投放市场至今,表现并不理想,近期更是遭遇了“订单荒”,2019年的产量将降至8架(2015年产量为27架,2018年为12架)。“空中巨无霸”缘何陷入曲高和寡的尴尬境地?

空客A380的问世适逢金融危机爆发,销量大打折扣,但这并非其日渐式微的主要原因。国际航空运输协会认为,眼下,相对低位的能源价格降低了航空运营成本,对航空业带来的提振作用有效对冲了全球经济不景气的消极影响,全球航空业整体表现不错。从这个角度看,A380的失势并不能归咎于经济衰退。它在设计、定位等方面的一些缺陷,是其一蹶不振的关键所在。

一是设计理念欠妥。由于A380体型过大,比波音系的超大客机747还要更宽、更高,一般机场无法满足其起降标准,需要对跑道和登机口进行全面改造,这使得A380的适用机场非常受限。根据最初的设计思路,A380主要用于纽约、伦敦、东京等国际航空枢纽间的客运,这无形中排除了赴其他目的地的乘客。很多旅客宁愿选择在规模较小的机场搭乘由低成本航空公司承运的直飞航班。

二是市场竞争力欠缺。A380的座位多达550个,在燃油经济性和单位座位成本方面几乎没有优势可言。许多航空公司都担心填不满这个巨无霸。如果没有充足的客源,经济上的损失可能要远大于座位少的普通客机。目前,由于技术进步,较小型的飞机也能跨洋飞行,虽然豪华性、舒适度无法与A380匹敌,但同样安全、便捷。诸如被市场热捧的波音737MAX和空客A320neo等“小飞机”,座位数量比旧款机型更多,燃油经济性也更好,性价比远在A380之上。此外,A380无法像波音747那样被改装成货机,这意味着一些国际快运巨头排除了购买A380的可能性。

这些缺陷源于空客早先对航空业的发展前景预测失误。当时,空客认为,随着人口的增长和全球化的深入,国际主要航空枢纽间的客流量会上升,超大型飞机是解决客流量和跑道数量这一矛盾的制胜关键。现实却是,二、三线机场的乘客数量明显上涨,航空公司也更加倾向于通过增加航班频次,而不是扩大飞机容量来运送旅客。

英国《金融时报》的评论认为,空客遭遇订单荒表明其技术创新难以转化为盈利。再好的技术也需要以正确的市场定位和满足客户需求为依托。空客首席执行官恩德斯近日强调,空客将以减产为契机,提升A380对客户的吸引力,以重振“空中巨无霸”的雄风。然而,在当下偏爱小而美的航空业,“巨无霸”能否开辟足够的生存空间仍很难说。

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