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当代经济学人 把脉中国经济

2017-08-18 16:07:32   中国青年网

《中国工业化的道路:

奋进与包容》

金碚

中国社会科学出版社

《中国工业化的道路:

奋进与包容》

金碚

中国社会科学出版社

张弘

中国的工业化发展道路,以及供给侧改革,是社科院学部委员金碚重点关注的课题。在《中国工业化的道路:奋进与包容》一书中,金碚提出了包容性发展的重要问题:“到底工业化对人类是不是值得,财富确实是增长了,GDP确实是扩大了,国力确实是增强了。那么我要问,人民获得了吗?哪些人获得了,哪些人没有获得?”“在全球化过程中间,有些人就是受损了,如果只要财富增长,只要有效率,只要有GDP,只要有总量的提高就行了,不关切到各种各样的人群,各种各样的国家,各种各样的民族能行吗?工业化逻辑一定会推演到全球化,其中核心的问题就是包容。工业化从国家走到全球能包容吗?能让全球大多数国家、大多数民族、大多数人口都享用到工业化、全球化的利益吗?”

金碚说到的包容性,既包括利益分配的相对均衡与合理,更包括法治层面的公平。而中国改革开放最彻底的是工业领域,因为决定工业体制改革方向的不是工业部门自己。《中国工业化的道路:奋进与包容》指出,2016年全球制造业竞争力指数中国居首。据国际机构的测评,以低成本低价格优势和大规模生产能力所支撑的制成品国际竞争力,中国在2013—2015年位居世界第一。但这一优势从21世纪第二个十年开始相对削弱。据德勤旗下的全球消费者及工业产品行业小组联合美国竞争力委员会发布的《2016全球制造业竞争力指数》,2016年中国排名第一,美国第二。而据预测,到2020年美国将超过中国位居世界第一。以此而论,中国制造业的升级换代确实刻不容缓。

联合国贸发会议经济事务官员、《世界投资报告》主笔之一梁国勇博士在《中国经济2040——全球变局与中国道路》(中国人民大学出版社)中提出,2014年中期以来,特别是2015年中期以来,国际资本逆向流动,往发达经济体回流,汇率、资本外流等方面都存在风险,世界经济难以在短期内强劲复苏。所以我们应该更多立足于内升的结构性因素,推动中国经济自身的发展。对外应该更积极推动全球化,反对逆全球化,在全球化进程中发挥更重要的引领作用。梁国勇认为,我们的经济不会再出现两位数的增长,“8”上的增长也是非常难以看到,一个理想的未来走势就是我们经过一个长期的三个阶段的增长平台,可控地、缓慢地降低增速,增速虽然下降了,但保持稳定的、健康的、长期的增长。如果这样一个看似保守的预期能够成为现实的话,在2040年,我们中国经济就是一个发达经济体,我们每一个中国人都能过上现在发达国家的普通民众所能够享有的生活水平。实现这样一个预期并不容易,需要四个方面的转型:

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