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中国经济新旧增长动力的转换

2017-08-18 09:22:19   中国青年网

原标题:中国经济新旧增长动力的转换

经济增长动力的供求视角

从供给侧观察,经济增长来自于由劳动、资本、资源、技术等要素配置形成的产业产出。在一个时期里,能为一国或地区经济增长起主导作用的产业,就是经济增长的动力来源。在工业化的中前期阶段,经济增长主要是依靠工业的规模化扩张对农业的替代,而工业的扩张主要是依靠劳动密集型产业的迅速发展。在工业化中后期,经济增长主要是依靠服务业发展对工业的替代,此时工业内部结构转换是在劳动密集型制造业与资本技术密集型制造业之间进行,资本技术密集型制造业的快速发展,推动了工业结构的调整,使得产业发展出现了中高端化趋向。

以韩国为例,在20世纪60年代经济刚起飞时,韩国抓住美国、日本等发达国家将劳动密集型产业转移到发展中国家的机会,利用本国劳动力资源优势,实行出口导向型发展战略,重点发展以轻纺工业为主的劳动密集型产业;进入70年代,随着劳动力短缺和工资上涨,以及西方发达国家经济衰退,还有后起的发展中国家在劳动密集型产业发展方面的竞争,韩国利用发达国家重化工业向新兴发展中国家转移的机遇,大力发展钢铁、非铁金属、机械、造船、汽车、电子等具有资本密集性质的重化工业,到1980年韩国重化工业在制造业中的比重上升到50%以上。进入80年代,面对新兴工业化国家的崛起,国际市场竞争日趋激烈,韩国提出了“产业结构高级化”的政策目标,对传统重化产业进行技术升级改造,同时大力发展精细化工、精密仪器、计算机、电子机械等。进入90年代以后,韩国受到亚洲金融危机的严重打击,经济衰退,失业人数大幅度增加,社会收入分配结构出现恶化,此时韩国正处于由中上等收入国家向高收入国家迈进的关键时期。面对危机,韩国在推进金融体系、劳动力市场、公共部门改革以及企业结构调整的同时,大力发展知识密集型产业和服务业。比如集中发展计算机、半导体、生物技术、新材料、精细化工、航天航空产业;2003年以后,数字电视、液晶显示器、智能机器人、新能源汽车、新一代半导体、新一代互联网、智能型家庭网络系统、数字内容软件、新一代电池、生物新药以及人工脏器又成为韩国的“十大引擎产业”。

同韩国相比,巴西经济发展更早一些。二战后,巴西开始实行进口替代工业化战略,1949-1981年,巴西经济年平均增长7%,其中1968-1974年经济增长年均超过10%。1970年巴西人均国民生产总值达到450美元,是韩国的1.7倍。但是,由于产业结构失衡、收入分配结构失调、城市化超前、通货膨胀严重等因素,导致巴西1980年代以后经济增长放缓,使其一直徘徊在中等收入国家之列。1980-1990年巴西经济增长年均2.2%,90年代以来巴西虽然进行了经济结构调整和经济体制改革,也仅实现了经济温和增长。巴西由于过早地推进资本密集的重化工业发展,使得经济社会资源过分向钢铁、建材、化工、汽车、造船等倾斜,这不但造成工业与农业、重工业与轻工业、基础产业与加工工业结构失调,而且还造成较为严重的社会失业。

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