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深化改革铸就新成就

2017-08-15 17:14:22   国际在线

【深入学习贯彻习近平同志“7·26”重要讲话精神】

作者:刘伟(中国人民大学校长、中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院院长)

在省部级主要领导干部“学习总书记重要讲话精神,迎接党的十九大”专题研讨班开班式上,习近平总书记指出,我们要牢牢把握我国发展的阶段性特征,牢牢把握人民群众对美好生活的向往,提出新的思路、新的战略、新的举措,继续统筹推进“五位一体”总体布局、协调推进“四个全面”战略布局,决胜全面建成小康社会,夺取中国特色社会主义伟大胜利,为实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦不懈奋斗。

重视形势分析,对形势作出科学判断,是为制定方针、描绘蓝图提供依据。从经济形势来看,党的十八大以来,以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚持稳中求进的工作总基调,对进入经济发展新常态的中国经济作出了仍处在重要战略机遇期同时又面临“三期叠加”的重要判断,不仅通过供给侧结构性改革为国家制定正确的经济政策、实现经济稳中向好提供了基础,而且在政府与市场关系、依法治国、从严治党等基础性制度层面作出了重大部署。在全面建成小康社会决胜阶段、中国特色社会主义发展关键时期,我们既要看到成绩和机遇,更要看到短板和不足、困难和挑战,看到形势发展变化给我们带来的风险,从最坏处着眼,做最充分的准备,朝好的方向努力,争取最好的结果。

 中国经济发展新常态面临挑战

改革开放使得中国经济保持了30余年的高速增长,经济发展从贫困状态进入到上中等收入阶段,目前面临穿越中等收入阶段的战略机遇期。当代世界70个左右的高收入国家自上中等收入阶段进入高收入阶段平均用了12~13年时间,我国人均GDP水平2010年达到世界银行划定的上中等收入起点,若按一般发展史经验,预计2022年前后有望跨越上中等收入阶段进入高收入阶段。这一时期正是中国经济结构转型的关键期,也是中国经济问题长期累积的风险期:

第一,过去高速增长依赖的基础发生了重大拐点性变化,决定了中国经济必将告别高速增长阶段,步入增速换挡期。例如各类改革开始步入深水区,一些机制体制性问题已严重制约资源配置的效率,前一时期的改革红利逐步耗竭;适龄劳动力人口已达到顶点,农村剩余劳动力转移的增长速度开始大幅度回落,人口红利开始逆转;伴随经济发展和市场约束力度增大,经济短缺逐渐让位于产能过剩,需求侧的市场红利根本逆转;第三产业比重已超过第二产业比重,工业化红利开始步入递减区域;包括劳动力、自然资源、生态环境、技术进步等在内的要素成本大幅上升,供给侧的发展红利逐渐减弱;受国际金融危机的冲击,对外贸易从以往两位数的增长下降至负增长,经济全球化红利在全球经济衰退中已经消失。

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