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世界经济面临哪些“灰犀牛”?

2017-08-15 07:14:41   中国经济网

开栏的话

当前,世界经济出现向好势头。有关国际组织预计,今年世界经济有望增长3.5%。这是近年来最好的预期。中国在G20汉堡峰会上提出,在新形势下,应坚持建设开放型世界经济大方向,为世界经济增长发掘新动力,建设创新、活力、联动、包容的世界经济。如何看待当前世界经济?《经济日报》即日起推出“国际经济热点前瞻”专栏,从世界经济面临哪些“灰犀牛”、国际能源格局变化影响几何、全球跨境并购有何新动向、前沿创新如何驱动经济发展等角度,深度阐释世界经济发展面临的新趋势新特征。敬请关注。

今年上半年,在全球制造业与贸易的周期性复苏以及全球金融市场相对稳定的发展下,世界经济出现向好势头。进入二季度后,多家机构调高了对今明两年世界经济增速的预期。但是,世界经济中的深层次问题仍未解决,威胁增长的主要风险存在已久,乃至于人们几乎习以为常。对这些可能演化为“灰犀牛”事件的风险,下半年依然需要保持高度警惕。

首先是保护主义不断升温的风险。该风险的产生,本质上源于全球不平等加剧的问题没有得到有效遏制。从风险的演进来看,一方面是一些发达经济体没有摆脱传统的依靠金融和投资扩张应对危机的老路,导致新旧动能转换难以接续,增长动力衰减,市场需求不振、金融风险累积,从而社会矛盾集中出现外化;另一方面是经济全球化成效没有惠及所有参与者,特别是许多发展中国家的民众被排除在经济全球化带来的收益之外,孤立主义和反对全球化的思潮盛行。此外,英美等国经常账户逆差的扩大,也在短期内加剧了这些发达经济体保护主义情绪的上升。去年的英国脱欧和美国大选是这种情绪的集中反应。如果不能采取有效的政策措施加以遏制,保护主义升温给世界经济带来的风险,在下半年还有可能以不同面貌出现。

其次是发达经济体货币政策正常化步入新阶段,推高利率进而带来流动性收缩。2014年以来,以美国为代表的发达经济体货币政策正常化步伐缓慢,美欧日货币政策还一度出现分化。今年上半年,这种分化减弱并逐渐趋向一致。美联储升息步伐出现提速,并正式提出缩减资产负债表(“缩表”)计划,欧元区和日本的货币宽松步伐也出现一定的停滞转向。主要发达经济体货币政策收紧预期走强将使全球流动性出现持续收紧。尤其是市场预期颇高的美联储“缩表”,其主要作用直接体现在回收流动性上,进而带动跨境资本向发达经济体回流。对那些外债水平较高、经济增长乏力、外汇储备不足的国家而言,回流造成的紧缩可能酝酿出新的债务危机,并给本国及周边区域经济带来不利影响。

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