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“外储连升”说明了什么(热点聚焦)

2017-08-09 04:33:16   中国青年网

供给侧改革渐显效

2017年上半年,中国民间投资同比加快4.4个百分点,高技术产业增长13.1%,全面完成取缔“地条钢”任务,进出口总额同比增长19.6%……在不少分析人士眼中,“外储连升”首先折射出的是供给侧结构性改革之下中国经济出现的一系列积极变化。

在中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲看来,整个上半年经济状态超乎预期,稳定性利好性比较突出,对外汇储备增量带来了较大积极影响,大家结汇意愿增强,从而给外汇储备稳中有升注入了积极因素。中国民生银行首席研究员温彬认为,今年以来随着中国宏观经济企稳回升以及人民币汇率形成机制进一步完善,人民币兑美元贬值预期下降,跨境资本流动形势回稳向好,银行结售汇逆差状况趋于改善,推动外储持续回升。温彬预计,人民币兑美元汇率将保持稳定,外汇储备仍将小幅增加。

“今年以来,虽然中国在跨境资本流动环节完善了监管,抑制了投机性资本快进快出,但是外汇储备并不可能因为监管这一个因素就出现连续回升。事实上,在供给侧改革的背景下,企业产品升级、出口竞争力提升等基本面变化,为外储回升提供了强劲的经济支撑。”中国国际经济交流中心经济研究部副研究员张焕波在接受本报记者采访时说。

资本进出更趋理性

“今年以来,我国经济延续了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的有利因素进一步增多。国际金融市场相对稳定,跨境资金流动和外汇市场供求基本平衡,人民币汇率保持基本稳定。受此提振,居民和企业的购汇行为更加趋于理性。”国家外汇管理局有关负责人对于“外储连升”的评价,折射出了另一个重要变化:国内市场主体结售汇心态理性、不再盲目。

业内人士表示,中国外汇储备从本世纪初的约1655亿美元开始迅速增加,到2014年达到历年最高点3.99万亿美元后缓慢下降。2014年以后,“3万亿美元”成为一个重要的“心理关口”,当外储逼近这一关口时便容易形成非理性购汇需求。然而,随着时间的推移,人们逐渐意识到,中国仍然是贸易顺差国家,外汇供给压力并不大,而且换汇带来的收益则并不比人民币理财及投资收益更高。

张焕波进一步分析称:“从政府层面来讲,面对前一阶段非理性换汇需求带来的资本外流压力,有关部门及时采取了外汇知识普及等措施,进行了合理的预期引导,取得了效果。从购汇市场主体来看,不少企业在海外投资并购过程中遇到了各种各样的风险和难题,因此也产生了适时放慢出海步调、重新谋划稳妥布局的内在需要,减少了外汇流出的压力。”

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