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外汇储备六连升

2017-08-07 18:31:08   中国经济网

中国经济网北京8月7日讯(记者 张忱)7日,人民银行发布的数据显示,截至2017年7月末,外汇储备规模30807亿美元,较6月末上升239亿美元,升幅为0.8%,为连续第六个月出现回升。

国家外汇管理局有关负责人表示,7月,我国跨境资金流动延续稳定势头,外汇供求趋向基本平衡;国际金融市场上,非美元货币相对美元总体升值,推动以美元作为计量货币的外汇储备规模出现上升。

招商证券谢亚轩、闫玲团队认为,汇率折算因素是央行官方外汇储备显著增长的主因。我们估计7月汇率折算因素的影响为+291亿美元,扣除该因素,央行官方外汇储备实际增长是-52亿美元。6月汇率折算因素的贡献+135亿元,二季度汇率折算因素的平均每月贡献是+157亿美元。预计本月美债及美股资产估值因素的影响较小。

民生银行首席研究员温彬分析,今年以来,随着我国宏观经济企稳回升以及人民币汇率形成机制进一步完善,人民币兑美元贬值预期下降并对美元逐步升值,跨境资本流动形势回稳向好,在此背景下,银行结售汇逆差状况趋于改善,推动外汇储备持续回升。此外,7月份美元指数延续年初以来下跌走势,当月下跌3%左右,使我国外汇储备投资中非美元投资部分估值增加。

招商证券认为,受益于美元持续走弱,非美货币升值,导致外汇储备折算成美元资产估值上升。美元指数跌落至93附近,本轮的美元走强的核心推动因素,是美国与其他国家——特别是欧洲国家——货币政策的分化,而随着欧洲经济的好转,货币政策的预期转向收紧,拖累美元走弱。此外,特朗普积极财政政策不及预期,以及其对弱美元也有诉求。

外汇局有关负责人认为,今年以来,我国经济延续了稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势,支撑经济保持中高速增长和迈向中高端水平的有利因素进一步增多。国际金融市场相对稳定,跨境资金流动和外汇市场供求基本平衡,人民币汇率保持基本稳定。受此提振,居民和企业的购汇行为更加趋于理性。

往前看,在供给侧结构性改革深入实施、创新驱动发展战略加快推进的大背景下,我国经济运行当中积极的变化还会继续增加。随着金融市场扩大开放,外汇市场健康发展,市场预期稳定,跨境资金流动总体企稳的基础更加坚实,将进一步推动外汇储备规模保持稳定。

招商证券分析,人民币汇率的“价”和跨境资本净变化的“量”已经出现背离,在加入逆周期因子之后,市场对人民币汇率的预期分化,不能简单由当前人民币汇率的持续升值来推断国内外汇市场供求关系变化。维持下半年人民币汇率区间波动,而非单边升值,以及外汇市场供求弱平衡的判断。预计跨境资本外流的压力仍在,央行外汇占款维持低速增长。

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