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法甲首轮分析

2017-08-04 15:37:31   中国青年网

摩纳哥 VS 图卢兹

法甲新科冠军首轮坐镇主场,是胜利热门的一方。图卢兹上赛季客场表现颓靡,仅取2胜,但平局不少,输掉2球以上的场次也仅有两场。季前热身赛他们1胜2平,进2球失1球,防守做得不错,此役做客放低姿态做好防守未必不可守得平局。澳门球半中水,看好摩纳哥最多小胜,选择下盘更好一些。

巴黎圣日耳曼 VS 亚眠

实力悬殊的对决。主队刚刚夺得法国超级杯,士气正旺,99家平均欧赔胜赔1.15,大巴黎取胜应该悬念不大。亚眠是近两个赛季从法丙三级跳的球队,这支法甲新军以超越能力的意志力完成壮举但却不得不面对实力普遍超出自己的对手们,首轮便很可能被打回原形。大巴黎投入如此之大,开门红之余不留情面大打出手,两球半盘口未必能够挡得住。

圣埃蒂安 VS 尼斯

主队上赛季排名法甲中游,热身赛1平2负,状态比较差。尼斯刚打完欧冠附加赛,两场平局淘汰荷甲豪门阿贾克斯士气正旺。双方近两个赛季交手,主队输足4场,失8球仅入1球。实力盘口尼斯即便做客也可让球,而亚盘普遍开出主队让平半,威廉初赔2.20 3.00 3.30,尼斯取胜如此高的水位,基本不太能打出,主队不败可能性大。

里昂 VS 斯特拉斯堡

客队同亚眠一样是三级跳球队,实力处于法甲最末,客场面对攻击力十足的豪门里昂,取分不易。史上两队10次交锋里昂全胜,但是年代久远,虽然参考价值不大,但也可看出斯特拉斯堡顶级联赛经验的不足。主胜悬念不大的情况下,澳门一球/半低水的盘口,上盘显得过于容易,看好本场比赛里昂1球小胜。

特鲁瓦 VS 雷恩

特鲁瓦是法甲升降机,实力应该处于保级区。雷恩近几个赛季表现稳定,基本处于中游。双方近期状态主队明显更好,友谊赛两连胜,而客队热身赛表现不佳,两战两负。双方交锋史主队2胜3平5负,其中主场1胜1平3负处于下风,综合判断双方本场基本面势均力敌。平手盘高水,威廉初赔2.60 3.00 2.70的情况下,首选平局。

梅斯 VS 甘冈

实力上客队略强。主队热身赛表现不错,近两场面对实力高于自己的对手均取得平局,客队没有热身赛,备战较主队为差。双方上赛季两次交手,梅斯主平客负。澳门平手中高水,威廉初赔2.80 3.00 2.50,走向一致,属难点比赛,个人更看好态度积极的主队。

蒙彼利埃 VS 卡昂

蒙彼利埃上赛季提前保级,最后阶段一泻千里,新赛季前唯一一场热身赛1比0取胜圣埃蒂安,看来有些振奋精神的意思。卡昂勉强保级,实力处于下游,热身赛输给昂热。上赛季交手,蒙彼利埃双杀对手,实力盘口半球,澳门初盘相符,威廉1.85 3.20 4.20,压低平赔做诱饵,看好主队取胜。小宝熊 J190

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