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机构：一线和强二线城市房价地产泡沫值得关注和警惕

2017-08-03 16:38:19   

易居研究院8月3日发布的《关于房地产泡沫的量化分析》认为，当前我国房地产市场确实存在着全国略热、局部过热的现象，尤其是一线城市、强二线城市、环都市区的房价地产泡沫值得关注和警惕。 报告通过对比中日两国地价增幅/GDP增速、地价增幅/家庭收入增幅、地价增幅/CPI增幅以及房价收入比等指标发现，当前我国房地产市场发展与日本房地产泡沫有部分相似之处，但经济的发展、城镇化的推进以及人口红利等都将为我国房地产市场发展提供基本面的支撑，适当采取有效措施并不会重蹈日本的覆辙。 易居房地产研究院研究员朱丽娜认为，中国一线城市及周边(即四大都市圈，同时也可代表中国都市圈)的房地产泡沫化程度，大致相当于日本都市圈1990年前后(房地产泡沫高峰期)的70%。但全国整体的房地产泡沫程度，应显著低于日本1990年前后的水平，估计只有30%左右。 报告显示，2016年，我国地价增幅较上年同比增长24.1%，GDP增速为6.7%，地价增速与GDP增速的比值达到3.6，而在地价较为合理的2005-2013年间，该比值约为1.6。 从绝对值来看，我国地价增速/GDP增速已高于泡沫时期日本的3.15，全国地价确实存在着偏热。但我国地价增速/GDP增速的偏离度为125%，仍然略低于日本房地产泡沫期133.3%的水平。

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