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作者:中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员,中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院教授 张杰
近日,国家统计局公布了今年4月份的经济运行数据。从数据来看,中国经济在2017年第1季度所呈现出一个全面的良好开局局面,有力地回击和驳斥了“怀疑”和“质疑”中国经济、“看空”和“唱衰”中国经济的各种论调。我们有理由相信,中国经济会通过培育经济新动能继续发展,通过扎实深入推进供给侧结构性改革和创新驱动发展战略,保持宏观经济“稳中有进”“稳中向好”的良好态势,维持中国经济在今后相当一段时期内的中高增速水平。
在4月中国国民经济运行相关数据中,虽然某些宏观指标数据出现了一些正常的小幅波动,但是,对中国宏观经济“稳中有进”、“稳中向好”基本态势的判断,再次得到核心数据的有力支撑,中国经济已经站在了一个全新发展周期的新起点的判断,也得到相关数据的明确地初步证实。对2017年1-4月份中国国民经济运行的相关核心数据进行仔细观察,一个不可忽略的重要现象是,工业部门的企稳向好,是当前中国宏观经济“稳中有进”“稳中向好”局面形成的重要因素之一;工业部门中工业产品质量的提高、全要素生产率的持续提升与自主创新能力的逐步强化提升,是现阶段中国经济顺利实现提质增效和转型升级战略目标的重要支撑力量之一;工业由中低端向中高端化水平的持续转型升级,是现阶段中国经济新旧动能加速转变和经济新动能稳步发展壮大的核心构成之一。一言以蔽之,工业向中高端的稳步持续迈进,是在今后相当长一段时期内决定中国经济能否维持在中高速增长水平的根本性着力点所在,是加快中国经济内生动力形成的决定性途径所在,更是启动中国经济全新周期的关键性突破口所在。
首先,工业部门的企稳向好,在相当程度上决定了当前中国宏观经济“稳”的主基调。以制造业为主的实体经济部门的稳健复苏,是2017年中国宏观经济企稳向好局面出现的核心因素。尤为需要清醒认识的事实是,在当前中国经济增长的诸多驱动动力中,工业部门是中国经济能否从L型走势中实现探底、筑底、企稳、复苏甚至反弹的重要支撑力量。一方面,工业增加值全面呈现稳定向好的发展态势。2017年第1季度,全国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%,增速比上年同期加快1.0个百分点,比上年全年加快0.8个百分点。其中,最为引人注目的亮点是,2017年第1季度,制造业增加值同比增长7.4%,要高于工业部门0.6个百分点,而且,规模以上工业企业产销率达到97.2%。2017年4月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.5%,增速比3月份回落了1.1个百分点,但是比1-2月份加快了0.2个百分点,比去年同期提高了0.5个百分点。在2015年以来各月增速当中,6.5%的增速仍然明确属于较高的水平。另一方面,在PPI指数持续处于高位以及工业供求关系逐步趋向合理的情形下,2017年第1季度规模以上工业企业的利润同比增长了28.3%,比去年全年提高近20个百分点。规模以上工业企业3月份主营收入利润率也达到6.47%,比去年同期提高0.49个百分点。同时,私营企业实现的利润总额也同比增长了15.9%,这个增长幅度比1-2月份还加快了一个百分点,比去年同期高出近10个百分点。此外,特别要关注的是,小微工业部门的市场活力也得到一定程度的激活。不仅仅小微工业企业中反映资金正常或者充裕的比例已经达到70%以上,是2012年以来一个比较高的水平,而且小微工业企业的景气指数也达到了近两年来的一个高点。
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