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赵海 清华大学国家战略研究院研究员
从去年年底到今年四月底,中央几乎每个月都召开与经济相关的高层会议,针对国内外不断变化的经济形势作出相应决策和部署,保证经济健康平稳发展。2017年一季度各主要经济指标均达到或超越出预期,符合中央稳中求进的工作总基调。近日,4月份的经济数据纷纷出炉,分析中可以看出,我国经济不仅在合理区间运行,而且沿着金融、地产脱虚向实,供给侧结构性改革和创新发展的方向稳步前进,取得了实际的成效。
房地产调控、金融监管加码,经济脱虚向实
3月以来,全国房地产市场不断出台调控新政,通过综合运用五大调控工具,因城施策,迅速遏制住了近一年来大幅上涨的房价,突出体现了“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”定位。根据国家统计局发布的4月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格统计数据,15个一线和热点二线城市新建商品住宅价格同比涨幅均出现回落,70个城市中30个新建商品住宅价格同比涨幅回落,31个环比下降或涨幅回落。相比3月,一线、二线城市4月新建商品住宅价格同比涨幅分别回落2.8%和1.0%。二手住宅市场上,70个城市中只有17个环比涨幅超过了1%,而9个城市则是持平或略有下降。随着各地房产政策效应不断积累,投资性购房需求被抑制,楼市泡沫将继续被挤出。
与此同时,一行三会对金融行业的监管也按照中央要求不断深入,加大了对违规违法行为的惩处,以实现去杠杆、防风险的目的,加强金融服务实体经济的力度。根据中国人民银行统计数据,4月新增人民币贷款1.1万亿元,环比多增800亿元,M2同比增长10.5%;社会融资规模增量为1.39万亿元,同比多增6133亿元。信贷超预期增长表明,银行在严格监管下,大幅收缩表外理财产品规模,加大了信贷投放。4月企业中长期融资需求强劲,新增贷款5226亿元,反映出实体经济融资需求持续扩张。挤泡沫、控风险虽然对房地产和资本市场造成了一定影响,但有利于推动流动性脱虚向实,为振兴实体经济,推进经济结构战略性调整提供支撑。
供给侧结构性改革成效显现
深化供给侧结构性改革是新常态下的经济政策主线,目前阶段以“三去一降一补”为主要内容。据国家统计局发布的工业生产数据,4月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.9%,环比增长0.57%,较3月快0.3%。分地区看,东部地区增加值同比增长6.5%,中部地区增长8.3%,西部地区增长7.4%,东北地区增长1.6%。
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