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警惕虚拟货币泡沫 投资切忌盲目与从众

2017-09-14 06:56:20   中国经济网

  ▲ 既无国家力量背书,也无实际使用价值,更无实际供应限制,虚拟货币的价格只能通过一种方式来体现,就是下一个接盘者愿意出的价格。价格高低完全由下一个接盘者出价来决定的金融现象,都可以用两个字来清晰描述——泡沫

  ▲ 虚拟货币不是科技,而是投资者的盲目与从众。当虚拟货币泡沫完全破裂时,投资者真正剩下的,只是一串计算机里毫无用处的代码。而这,才是虚拟货币的真实本质

  从17世纪荷兰的郁金香泡沫、18世纪英国的南海股票泡沫和1910年的清朝橡胶泡沫、1989年日本地产泡沫、2000年美国科技股泡沫,直至2008年美国/全球衍生品泡沫一路走来,人类对金融市场的认知一直存在漏洞与偏差,而金融泡沫也从未远离。

在这些金融泡沫褪去以后,留下的往往是一地狼藉。现在,以比特币为代表的虚拟货币泡沫,披着时代特有的高科技外衣,再次闯进人们的生活。

“高大上”难掩泡沫本质

虽然伴随着算法、计算机技术、区块链等各种名词,虚拟货币看起来十分“高大上”,但从本质上仔细剖析就会发现,火热的虚拟货币,其实是一个彻底的金融泡沫。其中,最核心的原因在于虚拟货币本身并没有任何价值,其供应也没有任何实际限制。

尽管绝大多数虚拟货币都宣称自己的发行数量有限,不会无限扩张,但关键的问题在于,到底有多少种虚拟货币,答案是没有任何限制。同时,在不同虚拟货币之间,又存在极强的替代性。也就是说,虽然虚拟货币A可能宣称自己只有2000万枚,但虚拟货币B可能有3000万枚,过了一段时间可能会出现C、D、E、F、G等各种虚拟货币,各有几千万或几亿枚。在这些虚拟货币之间,并没有本质的区别。所以,尽管单个虚拟货币的供应可能的确是有限的,但是作为一个整体,虚拟货币的供应却是无限的。

如今的虚拟货币市场,除了最著名的比特币之外,还有莱特币、公信币、瑞波币、活力币、狗狗币、比特币现金、未来币、质数币等,以及一些找不到中文译名的虚拟货币,如IOTA币、Omni币、Peer币、Ubiq币、ZEC币等。这些货币的发行没有法律法规的限制,制造一个和这些货币类似的新币也没有任何阻碍。更重要的是,几乎任何一个虚拟货币,都会宣称自己比其他的虚拟货币更先进、更优秀。

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