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鸡蛋 回落空间有限

2017-09-06 10:41:54   中国经济网

6月以来,鸡蛋价格大幅上涨。直到近期,备货接近尾声,需求下降,鸡蛋价格才开始回调。不过,笔者认为,受益于蛋鸡存栏量较低,后期鸡蛋价格下跌空间有限。

后期供应或减少

6月以来,鸡蛋现货价格快速上涨,蛋鸡养殖利润转好。不过,在此过程中,价格波动幅度较大,养殖户补栏谨慎,加之气温较高,育雏鸡补栏量始终处于低位。

芝华数据显示,7月,全国育雏鸡补栏量创历史新低,为4701万只,环比下滑13.22%,同比下滑43.56%。另外,1—7月,育雏鸡累计补栏量为3.87亿只,较上年同期的5.69亿只减少32%。虽然7月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量环比增加3.51%至10.90亿只,但这是4月育雏鸡补栏量环比增加的结果,5—7月的育雏鸡补栏量实际上在下降。

根据前期育雏鸡补栏数据测算,在正常的生产条件下,8—11月的在产蛋鸡存栏量分别为10.65亿、10亿、10.37亿和9.63亿只,后期鸡蛋供应预期减少。

双节备货临近尾声

禽流感疫情结束,鸡蛋消费回暖,并且中秋节和国庆节临近、学校也处于开学季,全国鸡蛋贸易形势良好,鸡蛋现货价格持续上涨。据wind的数据,截至9月1日,全国主要城市鸡蛋现货均价为4.33元/斤,较6月初的2.10元/斤上涨2.23元/斤,涨幅为106%。

但是,也要看到,贸易商备货临近尾声,鸡蛋需求有回落迹象。据卓创数据显示,上周主产区代表市场日均发货量总计为773.10吨,环比-0.42%,同比-14.29%。另外,卓创资讯对全国五个城市代表市场进行数据监测显示,上周鸡蛋总销量为8105.00吨,环比跌幅1.27%。双节备货结束后,鸡蛋现价或将出现回落,但预计下跌空间有限。

养殖户补栏积极性增高

近期,虽然蛋鸡苗价格持续上涨,但鸡蛋价格上涨幅度更大,并且饲料成本稳中有降、淘汰鸡价格攀升,以至于蛋鸡养殖利润较好。Wind的数据显示,截至9月1日,全国蛋鸡苗价格为3.24元/羽,较6月初的2.70元/羽上涨20%。同期,蛋鸡饲料成本下降1.8%,至2.14元/公斤;淘汰鸡价格上涨158%,至11.04元/公斤。

根据以上数据测算,目前,蛋鸡养殖利润(理论值)为70元/羽。虽然7月育雏鸡补栏量较低,但较好的养殖利润势必刺激养殖户的补栏积极性。往年秋季,本身也是育雏鸡补栏旺季。育雏鸡补栏量将增加,但形成有效的鸡蛋供应尚需时日,其对近期鸡蛋价格的影响有限。

基差回归至正常水平

在现货价格快速上涨的带动下,鸡蛋基差迅速回归,目前基差已回归至正常水平。截至9月1日,现货与主力合约的基差已经收敛至95元/千斤。根据历史数据,鸡蛋基差的正常波动范围在-1100—1000元/千斤。因此,近期需重点关注市场情绪的变化,把握好鸡蛋价格的波动节奏。

综上所述,在全国在产蛋鸡存栏量减少、后期鸡蛋供应下降的背景下,尽管节日备货接近尾声,鸡蛋价格也难以大幅下行。

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