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滴滴融资55亿美元 注定与百度在自动驾驶上有一战

2017-04-28 23:06:07   

雷锋网编者按,本文作者程浩,迅雷创始人,目前专注互联网领域的投资。本文由作者授权雷锋网发布。

去年我就写过一篇文章《百度和滴滴必有一战》。今天恰好滴滴完成了逾55亿美元新一轮融资,在这里谈谈我对这批“资金弹药”怎么用的看法。

首先补贴大战打完,滴滴的地位已经非常稳固,吃瓜群众们就别想这些钱会用来补贴了。我认为滴滴融了55亿美金,这么丰厚的资本,就是要和百度在自动驾驶上打一仗的。

官方也正好说了两个方向,第一个用在智能交通,也就是自动驾驶方面。这显然是滴滴最该发力的方向,所以他们在北美成立了研究院。不论自己研究还是通过并购,滴滴都要走共享+自动驾驶这个颠覆人类出行方式的路径。不然假设有一天国内大部分的汽车都用了百度的自动驾驶,百度接下来会做什么呢?一定会提供出行服务,说白了就是把滴滴打车给替代了。

因为对于滴滴来说,司机网络是其服务核心所在,他们再如何努力扩大市场,也无法消除掉边际成本。而一旦有一天,无需人力服务的自动驾驶汽车开始普及,就会跳出人力制约这个陷阱,其对滴滴商业模式的颠覆性是可想而知的。特别对于百度这么大的企业来讲,自己研发的汽车哪一天真正实现了商业化的自动驾驶,他们转头去做出行服务太容易了。每年几十个亿利润,在一线城市买车很容易。滴滴打车是属于C2C的模式,很容易被B2C的无人车模式所取代。

所以滴滴必须要打赢自动驾驶这场仗。而根据我的了解,做自动驾驶这件事还是挺消耗“资金弹药“的。百度号称这几年在自动驾驶方面的投入就已超过100亿人民币。未来考虑人才引入和并购一些自动驾驶公司,所以这次滴滴融资55亿美金也算是储备了丰厚的粮草,目的就是不能输给百度这样强劲的对手。不然未来百度很容易就能把他的事情给做了。

第二提到国际化,Uber本身就是非常国际化的公司,他们又是滴滴的股东,持股17.7%。所以未来滴滴进入Uber已经统治的国家,这有些说不通。滴滴只能选择差异化的国际市场,或者Uber没有打胜仗的市场。比如Uber目前在一些欧洲国家遇到了问题,在东南亚也有Grab这样的强大对手,这些都是滴滴可以首选发力的国际市场,或者滴滴也可以选择以投资的方式介入当地的运营商。

据说滴滴这次融资后,估值会超过500亿美金,但这毕竟是一级市场的事情,夸不夸大暂且不表。但有一点我比较确认,今年滴滴会盈利。取消补贴之后,滴滴盈利还是非常容易的,而且盈利数字会非常可观,否则也支撑不起这样的估值。 (via.雷锋网)

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