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北美自贸协定谈判前景难料

2017-08-22 07:55:35   中国经济网

在北美自贸协定框架下,美加两国贸易往来频繁。图为8月16日,在加拿大安大略省温莎市,车辆准备经过大使桥开往美国。

8月20日,为期5天的北美自由贸易协定首轮重新谈判在美国华盛顿结束。参与谈判的美国、加拿大、墨西哥发表联合声明称,三国在首轮谈判中就20多个议题进行了讨论,承诺加速谈判进程并进行全面磋商,以更新北美自贸协定。然而专家普遍认为,鉴于美、加、墨三方分歧较大,北美自贸协定重新谈判涉及议程较多,后续谈判任务将非常艰巨,谈判前景难料。

“各方在关键问题上依旧没有达成共识”

围绕北美自贸协定重新谈判的分歧在16日美、加、墨发表的谈判启动三方声明中已清晰可见。加拿大舆论认为,三方声明甚至无法就如何称呼新的谈判达成一致。美国希望“重新谈判”北美自贸协定,而加拿大和墨西哥希望将北美自贸协定谈判定义为“更新”。因此,两个词语同时出现在三方声明的第一句话中:美、加、墨三国“在华盛顿启动了北美自贸协定的重新谈判和更新”。墨西哥经济部20日发表的声明也未提及谈判的具体成果。

汽车业的贸易规则修订是三国谈判焦点。美国贸易代表莱特希泽表示,汽车贸易是美国对墨西哥、加拿大产生贸易逆差的主要原因。美国希望制定更为严格的汽车原产地规则,确保汽车业有“大量的美国部件”,并可能要求进口的墨西哥汽车必须有一部分组件是产自美国。不过,美、加、墨三国汽车制造商都反对更严格的原产地规则,他们认为,更严格的规定可能会以不可预测的方式影响其供应链,甚至可能被迫将生产转移到海外。

墨西哥《至上报》网站报道称,经过几天的谈判,三方在北美自贸区反倾销和反补贴争端解决机制等关键问题上依旧没有达成共识,对加强汽车制造业等领域的原产地规则的议题也因分歧较大而被搁置。

根据计划,北美自贸协定下轮谈判将于9月1日至5日在墨西哥举行,9月下旬在加拿大举行,10月回到美国,并计划年底前进行更多回合谈判。墨西哥将于明年7月举行总统大选,美国也将于明年11月举行国会中期选举。为了谈判结果不受国内政治影响,三国希望能在2018年初结束北美自贸协定重新谈判进程,不过这一“快节奏”的谈判能否如期达成目标仍然是一个未知数。

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