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新华国际时评:单边主义情绪该刹车了

2017-08-21 17:15:33   新华网

新华社华盛顿8月20日电 题:单边主义情绪该刹车了

新华社记者金旼旼 高攀

美国、加拿大和墨西哥8月16日至20日在华盛顿举行旨在修改已生效23年的北美自贸协定首轮谈判。三方制定了在自贸谈判中罕见的高频率谈判节奏,但鉴于分歧大、议程紧,贸易专家普遍并不看好谈判前景。

最大障碍来自于华盛顿为自贸谈判设定了难以实现的目标:削减美国贸易赤字。所有贸易专家和经济学家都明白,美国出现巨额贸易逆差并非是因为“坏的贸易协定”,其根源在于国内储蓄和投资失衡的结构性经济问题。

令人惊讶的是,为一个年贸易额高达1.2万亿美元的自贸区重新订立规则,其动机竟建立在对经济常识的误解之上。这不得不让人怀疑这一贸易谈判的前景。

众所周知,“美国优先”是美国新政府一直宣示的政策,却也可能成为华盛顿重塑多边和双边贸易关系努力的最大绊脚石。华盛顿在贸易领域强烈的单边主义倾向已成为全球自由贸易发展的最大障碍。

虽然就北美自贸区重开谈判仅事关三国,但其背后所反映出的美国新政府对自由贸易的看法才更值得担忧。从退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定,到重谈北美自贸协定、韩美自贸协定,华盛顿在贸易领域已展露出极强的单边主义倾向。

其后果是,华盛顿对美国贸易逆差原因作出了错误的诊断:不公平的贸易协定和贸易行为;更开出了错误的药方:放弃多边贸易体制、挥舞单边主义贸易大棒。这种贸易主张必定会引起贸易伙伴的强烈反弹。

这种在双边和多边贸易问题上的单边主义倾向也将产生极坏的示范效应,“美国优先”所代表的经济民粹主义具有很强的传染性。例如,针对北美自贸协定谈判,美墨两国经济界人士均担忧美方“美国优先”立场可能引发墨西哥国内民粹主义抬头,这可能在中长期进一步损害双边经贸关系。

北美自贸协定生效于1994年,一年之后世界贸易组织正式成立,经济全球化由此驶入发展快车道。不过,经济全球化在促成全球经济大繁荣的同时,也带来全球化获益在不同阶层分摊不均的问题。

具体来说,发达经济体的产业工人阶层因产业转移而成为利益受损者,例如汽车企业将工厂从美国迁至墨西哥导致美国汽车工人失业。但应该看到,汽车产业的转移不仅提高了生产效率、增强了美国车企全球竞争力、降低了汽车价格、促进了墨西哥经济发展,还间接增加了美国运输、销售等部门的就业岗位。

因此,面对因利益分配不均而引发的发达国家民众逆全球化情绪,各方应有把握大局的眼界,更要有通过利益再分配平息利益受损阶层不满情绪的魄力。

总之,不能任由单边主义情绪肆意膨胀,该刹刹车了。

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