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道指再创新高动力何在

2017-08-04 07:32:23   中国经济网

1月25日,纽约股市道琼斯工业平均指数站上20000点;3月2日,道指再涨1000点突破21000点;时隔不到半年,8月2日道指再创收盘历史新高,升破22000点心理大关,收于22016.24点。从年初至今,道指涨幅已达11.4%。

分析人士认为,上市公司二季度财报向好是近来推升美股频创新高的主要原因。

美国科技巨头苹果公司8月1日收盘后公布的2017财年三季度(截至2017年7月1日)财报显示,公司季度摊薄后每股盈利1.67美元,好于市场预期的1.57美元,季度营收454亿美元,也高于市场估值的448.9亿美元。

苹果股价在8月2日开盘后随即大涨约6%,并带动道指突破22000点这一新里程碑。截至当日收盘,苹果公司股价比前一交易日大涨4.73%,收于每股157.14美元。

此前脸书、谷歌母公司“字母表”等科技公司公布的季度财报也纷纷好于华尔街预期,而最早公布财报的银行股也多数表现稳健。

汤森路透统计数据显示,标普500成分股公司中已有70%的公司公布了二季度财报,其中72.3%的公司盈利情况好于市场预期,68.5%的公司营业收入高于市场估值。

汤森路透最新预计,标普500成分股公司今年第二季度盈利同比上涨11.4%,营业收入同比上涨4.9%。

隆美银行全球资产首席分析师温贝托·加西亚在接受新华社记者采访时表示,除财报向好之外,美联储渐进的加息节奏和市场对美国总统特朗普经济政策持续的良好预期也是这半年来美股上扬的源动力。

加西亚认为,如果地缘政治因素稳定,美国经济数据持续向好,今年下半年美股将继续保持涨势。

市场认为,随着本轮财报渐进尾声,投资者未来将关注的焦点转向美国宏观经济数据以及美联储何时再次加息和开始缩减资产负债表。

美国自动数据处理就业服务公司8月2日公布的报告显示,7月份美国私营部门新增就业岗位17.8万个,低于市场预期的18.5万个。该公司公布的信息一般与美国劳工部公布的非农就业数据匹配度达96%,往往作为相关就业数据的前瞻。

市场一直密切关注美国非农数据以及其对美联储加息时点的影响。目前,分析人士普遍预计美联储不会在9月再次加息,甚至对今年年内能否再次加息也产生怀疑。专家认为,持续低通胀环境或将在未来继续拉升美股上涨。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)最新数据显示,目前市场对12月加息的预期仅为42.5%。

不过,也有交易员认为目前美股已经存在估值过高现象,投资者应对此保持谨慎,一旦未来美股回调,高杠杆率或将加速股价跳水。

此外,特朗普承诺加大财政开支、加强基础设施建设、减税、放松监管等一系列措施,是今年年初至今,乃至去年大选以来股市迭创新高的因素之一。但是,特朗普就任以来各项改革措施推进并不顺遂。倘若华尔街投资者开始质疑其承诺的可信度和经济政策的实施力度,“特朗普牛市”还能否持续,尚未可知。(孙鸥梦)

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