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地灾专家:高速远程滑坡是震后地灾防治的重中之重

2017-08-11 16:11:56   中国青年网

央视网消息: 据国土部网站消息,8月8日,四川省阿坝州九寨沟7.0级地震发生后,如何预防次生地灾成为大家普遍关心的问题。震后次生地质灾害有哪些特点?当前和今后一个时期地质灾害防治需注意哪些问题?对此,地质灾害防治专家殷跃平接受了专访。

点多面广、隐蔽性强,震区地灾后效应将更长

殷跃平告诉记者,九寨沟无论从龙门山还是从青藏高原周边来看都属于地震活动强烈地区。此次地震强度比汶川地震小,跟芦山地震差不多,次生地质灾害也同芦山地震类似,存在点多面广、隐蔽性强的特点。再加上地震区域先后经历了汶川地震和芦山地震,多次地震的叠加使区域地灾的后效应更长。

用新技术方法研究高速远程滑坡

殷跃平表示,在九寨沟进行地灾调查时发现了很多震裂山体,这些破碎的山体在强降雨的条件下极易发生山体失稳,产生地质灾害,因此必须高度重视。“高速远程滑坡是震后地灾防治的重中之重。”

“我们常用的排查方法是雨前排查、雨中巡查、雨后检查,这在一般地区是非常有效的。但震裂山体高差上千米,地灾隐蔽性很强,这就迫使我们改变传统的模式,根据地震活动规律,在断层附近或地形陡峭、岩体破碎的地方,以区带划分,利用科技手段对已有地灾隐患点做到精准防治。”殷跃平说。

他指出,在应急调查中,无人机的使用可使地质条件很快被圈定,INSAR技术可以用于动态调查,在一些地灾高发区域如居民区、集镇可通过打钻等工程地质手段加强地灾防范。另外,则要与创新相结进一步加强科普,加快地质队员知识更新。尽管知道了滑坡怎么产生,但如果缺乏高速远程滑坡的成灾理论指导,也很可能误判。所以要用新的技术与方法,研究远程高速滑坡如何起动,以及起动后的放大、加速效应。

我国从上世纪90年代初开始进行系统的防灾减灾工作,经过多年的努力,城市和县城灾害发生率明显下降。“但人们对生命价值的认识逐步提高,要求减轻因灾死亡,这对地灾防治提出了更高要求。”殷跃平说,光靠群测群防已经不能满足需要,需要进行科技创新。目前,地灾防治的难点主要在乡镇。乡镇的设置常常是随沟就势或随山就势,地质灾害易发高发。如何精准地找到这些灾害点同样需要先进的科技手段。

加强暴雨天气下的风险管控

殷跃平表示,目前正值旅游旺季,同时也是地灾高发期。从风险管理的角度入手,可以借鉴其他地方的经验,汛期出现暴雨天气时,对地灾害高发地带,断裂带附近5~10公里范围内的集镇和人员密集区进行封闭。

灾后重建要基于城市恢复力来进行

殷跃平指出,灾后重建,仅仅从成灾力方面考虑是不够的,要基于城市恢复力来进行。城市恢复力反映了灾后城市系统如何自我调节从而消融间接损失并尽快恢复到正常的能力。高风险的确应该避让,但实际操作中,避让从社会、经济等因素综合考虑并不现实。基于恢复力的重建,就可以采用工程、生态建设、监测预警的方法来综合考虑。在灾后重建中要适当提升地灾防治标准,并在此基础上围绕主要集镇点进行精准调查。

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