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国平:虚胖的经济正变得瓷实

2017-07-19 15:07:32   中国网

另一方面,战略性新兴产业和高技术产业均加速增长,上半年其增加值同比分别增长10.8%和13.1%,分别高于规模以上工业增加值增速3.9和6.2个百分点。工业机器人、民用无人机、集成电路、锂离子电池、太阳能电池、光缆、光电子器件等新兴工业产品均保持了快速增长。

上述积极变化主要得益于此前陆续推出的结构性政策。如针对中小微企业推出“减税降费”等多项扶持政策;金融“防风险、去杠杆”推动部分资金转向实体部门;房地产调控“因城施策”与“以满足新市民住房需求为主要出发点”平滑了房地产市场的波动,使得房地产投资下降速度慢于市场预期。

从近期中央召开的全国金融工作会议与中央财经领导小组第十六次会议这两个关键性会议来看,实体部门面临的政策环境还将继续改善。一是实体经济获得的金融支持将会增加,金融成本可能下降,习近平总书记明确指出金融工作的第一个原则便是“回归本源,服从服务于经济社会发展。金融要把为实体经济服务作为出发点和落脚点”,“促进融资便利化、降低实体经济成本”。

二是营商环境会进一步优化,习近平总书记指出,“要改善投资和市场环境,加快对外开放步伐,降低市场运行成本,营造稳定公平透明、可预期的营商环境要改善投资和市场环境”。此外,“营改增”等减税效应还在持续释放,货币政策也更趋稳健。这些政策环境因素叠加全球经济复苏带来的外需好转,将推动实体经济继续向好。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)自去年10月以来已三次上调对中国经济的预期,二季度GDP数据发布后,摩根大通和野村证券均上调2017年中国经济增速预期0.1个百分点至6.8%。中国经济在“量”上的走稳与“质”上的好转,将为下一步结构性改革、特别是经济去杠杆而不仅仅是金融去杠杆释放出空间。(国平)

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